High Nickel material / Lithium hydroxide "popular" in overseas High Nickel models

The rapid rise of the electric vehicle market in Europe and the United States is driving the "rush" of high-nickel batteries.

Data show that in the past July, the Chinese market produced about 33300 tons of ternary cathode materials, an increase of 82.3% over the same period last year. Among them, the monthly output of high-nickel ternary materials (nickel 8 series and above) was 13820 tons, an increase of 268.5% over the same period last year, accounting for 41.6% of the ternary materials, surpassing the nickel-5 series ternary materials, which had been dominant all the time, and became the "new king" of ternary materials.

It is worth noting that in July, the proportion of nickel 8 series ternary materials in the overall ternary material system was about 39.1%. It can be seen that the promotion of high nickelization of ternary materials continues to accelerate.

Although lithium iron phosphate has become more and more popular in the domestic market since last year, it does not hinder the "rush" of high-nickel ternary materials at all.

It is reported that the output of high-nickel ternary materials continues to grow, and more than 5 series ternary materials, mainly the gradual expansion of overseas high-nickel ternary battery models, leading to a high demand for high-nickel ternary materials.

Data show that the global installed capacity of power batteries in the first half of this year was about 114.1 GWH, an increase of more than 1.5 times compared with the same period last year. The installed capacity of the power battery in China is about 53.7 GWH, while the installed capacity in the market outside China is about 60.4GWh. Different from lithium iron phosphate and medium nickel ternary in the Chinese market, electric vehicle power batteries in overseas markets are mainly concentrated in medium nickel (nickel 6 series) and high nickel.

At this year's Shanghai Auto Show, car companies, including independent brands, new car-building powers, joint venture brands, foreign brands and traditional brands, displayed nearly 80 new energy models. Among them, 43 mid-and high-end new energy models have been or are planned to be equipped with high-nickel batteries. Among them, there are 18 foreign-funded / joint venture brand models.

It is worth noting that in terms of European and North American domestic markets, high nickel penetration is increasing, including Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, General Motors, Hyundai and other car companies are adding the proportion of high-nickel battery models.

Therefore, thanks to the rapid outbreak of the electric vehicle industry in Europe, North America, South Korea, Japan and other regions, the demand for high-nickel batteries has also ushered in a "blowout".

In fact, at present, the proportion of high-nickel batteries in overseas battery companies, including Panasonic Battery, LG New Energy, SKI, Samsung SDI and so on, is steadily increasing; Ningde Times, a local Chinese company, has also seen a rapid increase in the proportion of batteries exported to overseas markets since the beginning of this year, while the proportion of high-nickel batteries exported has also increased steadily.

The shipments of high nickel materials have greatly increased, and the performance of listed enterprises is outstanding.

Recently, Dangsheng Technology released its performance report for the first half of 2021. From January to June this year, the company achieved operating income of 2.989 billion yuan, an increase of 174.08% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 447 million yuan, an increase of 206.02% over the same period last year.

Dangsheng Technology said that during the reporting period, the development of high-nickel multi-material products was further accelerated, realizing the mass production of a variety of single crystal and agglomerated new products. Among them, Ni83, Ni88 and Ni90 high-nickel multi-materials are exported to overseas in large quantities and are used in first-tier brands of electric vehicles in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States.

Data show that in the first half of this year, Dangsheng technology multi-materials (mainly high nickel) overseas market sales of about 6415.85 tons.

The operating performance of Rongbai Technology, another domestic high-nickel material giant, in the first half of the year is also very eye-catching. On Aug. 24, Rongbai Technology released its semi-annual results, saying that the company's operating income in the first half of the year was 3.592 billion yuan, an increase of 191.69% over the same period last year. The net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies was 321 million yuan, an increase of 491.36% over the same period last year.

It is reported that in the first half of this year, Rongbai Technology's main products, ternary cathode materials, shipped more than 20,000 tons (of which more than 90% were high nickel ternary cathode materials), an increase of about 135% over the same period last year.

According to Rongbai Technology, at present, the company has full orders for high-nickel ternary materials, "thanks to the growth of demand for high-nickel power battery materials in the downstream market."

In the second half of the year, Rongbai Technology won new high nickel orders. On July 26, Rongbai Technology announced that the company and Funeng Technology signed a framework agreement for the procurement of cathode materials. According to the framework agreement, Funeng Technology will purchase 5505 tons and 30953 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials from Rongbai Technology respectively in the second half of 2021 and the whole year of 2022.

Thanks to the outbreak of demand for high-nickel materials, relevant companies are also actively promoting capacity expansion. Among them, Dangsheng Technology said that the company has started the feasibility study and demonstration of the European 100000-ton high-nickel power cathode material production base project, and the next step will speed up the investment decision and implementation of the project.

Rongbai Technology plans to promote the production capacity expansion of Hubei Phase 5, Zunyi Phase II and South Korea Phase I by Synchronize this year, and the total production capacity of cathode materials is expected to reach more than 120000 tons by the end of the year.

Huayou Cobalt said that in the first half of the year, the company has launched the feasibility design, compliance approval and other preliminary work for the ternary cathode material project of Guangxi Bamo Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 50,000 tons of high-nickel power battery, and the layout of relevant high-nickel production capacity is being steadily advanced.

The explosion of high nickel materials drives up the quantity and price of lithium hydroxide.

Lithium hydroxide, as a necessary raw material for high-nickel batteries, benefits from the surge in demand for high-nickel ternary materials. In fact, due to the gradual expansion of high-nickel ternary battery models in overseas markets and the rapid growth of high-nickel ternary materials, domestic lithium hydroxide production and export orders are rising rapidly.

According to the data, the output of lithium hydroxide in China will be 114000 tons in 2020. Cinda Securities expects China's market output to increase to 356000 tons in 2025, a compound growth rate of 26%.

On the demand side, Cinda Securities expects the actual global demand for lithium hydroxide for power batteries to rise from about 60, 000 tons in 2020 to 580000 tons in 2025.

Through the calculation of the marginal increment of global supply and demand of lithium hydroxide, Cinda Securities found that the overall supply and demand of lithium hydroxide will be tense in the next two years (2022-2023), and the supply gap will increase from 2024.

Under the situation of shortage of supply and demand, the price of lithium hydroxide continues to rise.

According to third-party data in the market, lithium hydroxide was quoted at 118750 yuan per ton as of Aug. 23, an increase of 18.16% in the month and has risen for 35 consecutive weeks.

It is worth noting that under the background of high demand and shortage of supply and demand, some lithium hydroxide enterprises are still raising prices. For example, Shandong Ruifu Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. quoted battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micro-powder grade) for 122000 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Ronghui General Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. quoted price of 122000 yuan / ton.

Tianfeng Securities said that with the gradual expansion of overseas high-nickel ternary battery models, export orders for lithium hydroxide have increased; the domestic ternary proportion of high nickel has also continued to grow, and the global trend of high nickelization has accelerated, and lithium hydroxide prices are expected to "take over" after lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate, becoming a leading rising variety in the third stage.

In fact, considering the strength of the overseas electric vehicle market, the permeability of high-nickel batteries has increased, and the demand for high-nickel ternary materials and lithium hydroxide continues to increase. China, including Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua Super Clean, Ya Hua Group, Rongjie shares, Ronghui Lithium Industry, Lanke Lithium Industry, etc., are actively laying out lithium hydroxide production capacity. In addition, Hainan Mining also plans to enter the bureau across the border, and plans to invest 1.065 billion yuan to build a 20, 000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project.

According to the production capacity planning of various enterprises, it is expected that the capacity of lithium hydroxide will be released centrally in 2022, which will meet the demand of high nickel battery to a certain extent. However, at that time, the release of lithium hydroxide capacity is not only related to the actual operation of the enterprise, the actual output will also be subject to the supply of lithium concentrate.