SMM3 March 4: the non-ferrous metals market fell across the board today. by the end of the day, international copper fell 1.94%, Shanghai copper fell 1.95%, Shanghai aluminum fell 1.64%, Shanghai lead fell 1.82%, Shanghai zinc fell 3.3%, Shanghai nickel fell 6%, and Shanghai tin fell 3.55%. In terms of nickel, the current round of decline digests the expectation of the nickel iron to high matte project, and continues to pay attention to the kinetic energy consumption of this round of decline. at present, the fundamentals are empty, and the nickel price may become empty in the near future under the background of hot production of nickel pig iron. However, some of the early macro factors supporting the nickel price still exist. In addition, before the conversion of nickel iron to high matte nickel project is really put into production, the market still has the game caused by economy. Therefore, the uncertainty of the price is greatly enhanced, the guidance of the news side and the positive speculative interpretation of the operators will have a sensitive impact on the market, whether accurate or not, and the reference significance of technical indicators decreases, so it is recommended to operate with caution.
"[SMM brief Review] Shanghai Nickel fell by the limit! A piece of news triggered the collapse of the nickel market, the balance of supply and demand will change?
In terms of copper, the main 04 contract in Shanghai today fluctuated widely within the day, opening at 66790 yuan / ton. After opening slightly to an intraday low of 66770 yuan / ton, the center of gravity of short positions moved up to above the daily average line, once returning to the vicinity of 67390 yuan / ton. In the second period of time, bulls left the market again and returned to the narrow range of 67030 yuan / ton under the daily average line, closing at 67170 yuan / ton before noon. In the afternoon, the center of gravity moved up again above the daily average, and after finishing the narrow range around 67270 yuan / ton, the bulls left the market, and the copper price fell below the integer mark of 67000 yuan / ton, all the way down to close at 66460 yuan / ton.
[brief Review of SMM Copper Futures] Shanghai Copper fell below 67000 yuan and lost support for the 10-day moving average. Concern that the main position has been moved back.
In terms of black, thread rose 0.1%, hot coil fell 0.04%, coking coal rose 0.2%, coke fell 1.8%, and iron ore rose 1.95%. According to SMM research, the blast furnace operating rate of SMM on March 4 was 86.2%, which was 0.9% lower than that before the festival and 2.1% higher than the same period last year. This week, Tangshan issued a monthly plan for comprehensive control of air pollution in March, which proposes that seven 450m blast furnaces in many steel mills will be shut down before March 10, and the operating rate of blast furnaces is expected to continue to decline next week as enterprises gradually implement the shutdown.
[SMM Analysis] Tangshan production restriction leads to a sharp rise in steel prices. Attention is paid to the disturbance of the policies of the two sessions to the stock market.
Crude oil rose 1.65% in the previous period, and crude oil futures strengthened for the second trading day in a row on Thursday, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its ally, OPEC, may decide not to increase production at a meeting later today, supporting prices and reducing U.S. fuel oil stocks. Three OPEC sources said the (OPEC) and its ally, OPEC, were considering keeping April production unchanged rather than increasing production because of the fragility of the oil market and global economic recovery given continuing concerns about the novel coronavirus epidemic.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell 0.82% and Shanghai silver fell 2.04%. International gold prices hovered near a nine-month low hit the previous session on Thursday, as rising US bond yields put pressure on non-yielding gold. Investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell to give a speech to see if he will express his doubts about the recent massive sell-off in government bonds and whether there will be any adjustment in his assessment of the economy before the Fed's next meeting, which ends on March 17. The U.S. Senate has postponed the discussion of President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion anti-epidemic aid bill until as early as Thursday.
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