SMM12, March 18: most of the outer disk metals were red yesterday, and three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ((LME)) approached an eight-year high on Thursday, as global copper stocks fell, the Federal Reserve / FED promised to inject more money into the market, and hopes of an economic stimulus package reached by Congress this week were heightened. Most of the LME metal market was red this morning. As of around 09:40 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 0.8%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 1.6%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Xi was flat, and Lun lead fell slightly. Domestically, international copper, shanghai copper and shanghai aluminum rose nearly 1.5%, shanghai lead rose nearly 0.1%, shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.6%, shanghai zinc rose nearly 1.1%, and shanghai tin rose nearly 0.1%.
On the copper side, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week ended December 12, announced at night, recorded 885000, much higher than the previous value and expectations. As the epidemic continues to spread, the recovery of the job market continues to slow. But congressional leaders and their aides continued to hammer out the details of novel coronavirus's nearly $900 billion rescue plan yesterday, and the White House believes a stimulus deal is expected to be reached within 48 hours. Investors' optimistic expectations for a new round of fiscal stimulus continue to rise. Optimism offset the negative impact of the unemployment data, market risk appetite boosted, US stocks continued to rise during the night, the three major indices hit record highs, and the dollar index fell below the 90 mark, continuing to hit its lowest level since April 2018. Under multiple positive conditions, copper for night delivery continued to rise.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Macro multiple positive copper futures continue to rise
In terms of aluminum, the ECB, as expected, is expected to be more relaxed, which is expected to be persistent good for basic metals and effectively boost Lun aluminum; in terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the low level of capital loosening superimposed inventory is still a strong support for the market, but the fundamental supply has risen slowly in the near future. at the same time, there are signs of seasonal weakening on the demand side, so we need to continue to pay attention to changes in market sentiment. Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly strong shock in the short term, and pay attention to the impact of the development of Russo aluminum events on the market in the short term.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Rusal sanctions news may have an own concern about the changes in market sentiment inside and outside the market.
In terms of lead, overnight Mei refers to a new low in the general rise of outer disk metal, while Lun lead is affected by the global lead market surplus in the first 10 months of this year, which is far higher than the data of the same period last year, superimposed lme lead inventory has once again increased by more than 10,000 tons, which is negative again. Overnight, Shanghai lead fell slightly under the influence of lun lead downward, while fundamentals in the case of stable supply and difficult to boost consumption, Shanghai lead rebound slightly insufficient, short-term may continue to be weak shock.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] LME lead accumulates a lot of lead inside and outside the stock market. Lead closed down and spot discount expanded slightly.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded four Lianyang, the upper Bollinger Road on the track to form a compression, the lower averages into a multi-headed arrangement, kdj opening up expansion. The fundamentals of zinc have not changed much for the time being, the supply of low ore in TC is still tight, and the smelter maintains routine maintenance. Although the consumer side is in the seasonal off-season, the consumption toughness of die-casting and zinc oxide plates remains, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the US dollar index hit a new low for the year and a high concussion in Shanghai and zinc.
In terms of nickel, the overall performance of the fundamentals is stable and improving. Although it is not easy for the price of high nickel pig iron to rise, the center of gravity of the transaction has actually hit bottom, and the price of stainless steel has also rebounded from low to release a certain profit space for steel mills. It is expected that the operating rate can maintain the current stable level; while the electrolytic nickel market is stable in consumption and the import volume is limited by the ratio, the domestic inventory falls to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel prices are high and volatile, spot atmosphere is light, stainless steel prices have fallen slightly.
Tin, yesterday's spot market mainstream discount: 2102 contract Yunxi discount about 300 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount about 1500 yuan / ton, small brand discount 2000-2200 yuan / ton. Spot prices continue to rise with futures prices, smelters and traders are strong, low-priced goods are difficult to find, few downstream market entry, the market fear of heights is very strong, the trading atmosphere is low. Today's forecast: Shanghai tin continues to rise, pay attention to the downstream procurement trends, today's spot is expected to be 152500-154500 yuan / ton.
"[12.18 Forecast of Tin prices Today]
On the black side, the thread rose by nearly 2.3%, the hot coil by nearly 2%, coking coal by nearly 2.8%, coke by 2.9%, and stainless steel by nearly 0.7%. The rebar inflection point may be further delayed-demand has not seen any obvious signs of weakening in the short term, the supply side continues to be restricted, the phenomenon of tight market specifications is still common, and even in some regions such as East China, this phenomenon may be intensified. In the short term, the bottom foundation of the price is very solid, and the downside risk is difficult to highlight. However, as the end of the year approaches, more and more projects are coming to an end, and under the pressure of winter storage, in the face of such high spot prices, the game between merchants and steel mills will gradually begin, and the resistance of prices to continue to rise is also gradually increasing.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] Iron Ore River Port pressure serious River Port inventory may decline
The last period of crude oil rose nearly 2.1%, and overnight international oil prices climbed steadily to a nine-month high, maintaining an overall upward trend. Earlier data showed that US crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week, while progress in the US fiscal stimulus package and strong demand in Asia boosted energy prices. Domestic crude oil and LPG follow the trend, market sentiment tends to be optimistic.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 1.1%, Shanghai silver rose nearly 3%, and international gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, as the market expected more novel coronavirus rescue measures and the Federal Reserve promised to inject more money into the economy and keep interest rates low. caused the dollar to fall. Analysts point out that additional stimulus measures, coupled with the Fed's continued purchases of bonds and assets, have clearly pushed up the price of gold and silver.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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