Macro Roundup (Oct 26)

SHANGHAI, Oct 26 (SMM) — This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

The dollar lost a little ground against most currencies on Friday after a measured US presidential debate and headed for weekly losses as investors waited for a breakthrough in stimulus talks in Washington and post-Brexit trade negotiations.

US President Donald Trump adopted a more restrained tone than in the first debate, though exchanges again focused on the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and personal slights.

The dollar was 0.1% lower against a basket of currencies, just clear of a seven-week low hit on Wednesday. It was down about 0.9% for the week.

A Biden victory, which polls predict, will probably drive further dollar weakness, because he is expected to spend more on coronavirus aid than Trump.

However, betting markets showed a small movement in Trump’s favor in the immediate aftermath of the debate, bookmaker Ladbrokes said on Twitter on Friday - which helped the dollar to strengthen.

Futures tied to major US equity benchmarks traded lower in overnight trading Sunday as Wall Street headed for the last full trading week ahead of Election Day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped about 100 points, indicating a loss of 140 points at Monday’s open. The S&P 500 futures and the Nasdaq 100 futures both fell 0.4%.

The decline in futures came amid a record surge in new coronavirus cases in the US. The country saw more than 83,000 new infections on both Friday and Saturday after outbreaks in Sun Belt states, surpassing a previous record of roughly 77,300 cases set in July, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that the US will not get control of the pandemic amid the surge in new cases. Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff and three aides tested positive for coronavirus, but his office said he will not quarantine himself.

This week marks the last week of October and the final trading period before Nov. 3. Major averages are on track for modest gains for the month, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both rising more than 3% so far. The 30-stock Dow is up about 2% this month.

Oil fell nearly 2% on Friday and headed for a weekly drop as demand concerns raised by surging coronavirus cases in the United States and Europe overshadowed the prospect of an extension to OPEC-led supply curbs.

Italy and several US states reported record daily increases in infections, while France extended curfews for about two thirds of its population as the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps across Europe.

Also weighing on the market, Libyan output, which had been mostly offline since January, has reached 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and will rise further by the end of October.

Gold eased on Friday as the dollar recouped some losses, but uncertainty going into the Nov. 3 US elections limited bullion’s losses. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,896.84 per ounce, US gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,898.40.

In Europe, the UK and European Union ramped up daily talks on Thursday as time ticks away for both sides to agree on a post-Brexit trading arrangement.

On the data front, the flash euro zone PMI composite output index, which looks at activity in both manufacturing and services sectors, dropped to a four-month low in October to 49.4, versus 50.4 in September. A reading below 50 represents a contraction in activity.