[SMM monthly special] the tin rally in Shanghai is strong and steady and the upside is expected to remain strong and volatile in the future.

SMM7 March 31: looking back in July, Shanghai tin prices still maintained an upward trend, during which July 28 intraday rose sharply to 154400 yuan / ton, but then fell back. As of July 31, the day closing price was 146620 yuan / ton, up 8320 yuan / ton, or 6%, compared with 138300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

With regard to the changing market, on July 28th, the opening of Shanghai and tin soared to 6%, and the US dollar continued to weaken, driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous precious metals plate; tin, as a small variety, is more easily affected by mood and capital, and the upsurge of mood leads to changes in funds. Shanghai tin opened above 150000. But near 10:30, the short rise of the dollar made non-ferrous metals fall across the board, spitting out some of their morning gains, and Shanghai tin also fell back from a rise of 6 per cent to around 2 per cent.

Since the beginning of the month, the basic extended 5-day moving average has risen steadily since the beginning of the month. Occasionally, due to the influence of the macro environment and investment sentiment, it broke the 5-day and 10-day moving average, and the bottom was also firmly supported by the 20-day moving average. It quickly returned to above the 5-day moving average and rose strongly. Near the end of the month, the high level broke through last year's highest point, only about 3000 yuan / ton short of the all-time high. The overall upward momentum is strong, bullish sentiment is high, recent high profit-taking, concerns about high risks and month-end capital withdrawal demand and other factors superimposed, Shanghai tin fell, but the overall upward trend, the moving average is a standard long arrangement.

In terms of fundamentals, Myanmar has not lifted its immigration controls, and the tight supply of tin ingots at the supply end continues. As the import window closes, the domestic supply of tin ingots may be reduced. We need to pay attention to the game of multi-empty forces, the resumption of domestic tin mining and the international macro situation after the re-entry of funds at the beginning of next week. It is expected that before mid-August, Shanghai tin may still be in a strong concussion situation.

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