[macro outlook] China releases official manufacturing PMI in July

SMM7 March 31: today's focus on China's official manufacturing PMI in July.

In terms of data,

China's official manufacturing PMI, monthly manufacturing composite index released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing in July, the system now includes new orders, production, employees, supplier distribution, inventory, price, backlog of orders, new export orders, imports and other business activity indicators.

The actual monthly rate of retail sales in Germany in June is a statistical summary of the amount of retail sales, which is the total value of goods sold in cash or credit by all stores mainly engaged in retail business except the service industry.

Consumer prices are the most important part of overall inflation in the euro zone, which is not seasonally adjusted for the initial annual rate of CPI in July. Inflation is important to currency valuations because rising prices will cause the central bank to raise interest rates to control its inflation target.

The initial GDP quarterly rate after the quarterly adjustment of the euro zone in the second quarter is one of the most important indicators to measure the economic situation of the United Kingdom, one of the main indicators for the central bank to formulate monetary policy, and one of the bases for the market to predict the future direction of economic and monetary policy, so it will have a great impact on the exchange rate.

The US PCE price index rose at an annual rate in June, and in January 2012, the Fed set a long-term inflation target of 2 per cent for core PCE, thus announcing that the Fed also has a clear inflation target. If the core PCE rises at an annual rate of more than 2%, the Fed will tighten monetary policy, which is good for the dollar, bullish gold, silver, oil and copper, and vice versa.

The monthly rate of personal expenditure in the United States in June, personal expenditure includes personal consumption expenditure and personal investment expenditure, which refers to the total expenditure data of all people in a country within a year, which is published once a month and compared with last month's data. Personal expenditure is a key indicator of economic growth. It has to do with people's confidence in their personal finances and their economic prospects.

The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence Index in July, financial market confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, accounting for most of economic activity. There is a closer correlation between the University of Michigan consumer confidence index and consumer spending. If consumer confidence rises, the bond market sees it as bearish and prices fall, while the stock market usually sees it as positive.

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