2020 China Stainless Steel Forum: China’s nickel ore imports from the Philippines to drop 20.4% in 2020

SHANGHAI, Jul 20 (SMM) – China’s laterite nickel ore imports from the Philippines are expected to drop 20.4% to 35 million wmt in 2020 from 2019, as deliveries have been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic early in the year, said Lingying Zhang, senior nickel analyst at SMM.

Speaking to delegates and online participants at the 2020 China Nickel, Chromium and Stainless Steel Forum in Wuxi on Monday July 20, Zhang expected that the decline in the supply from the Philippines would be greater than the loss in the demand, lowering nickel ore stockpiles in China to 56,000 mt Ni by the end of this year.

There were 152,000 mt Ni of laterite nickel ore stockpiles across ferronickel smelters and ports in China at the end of 2019, while the supply from the Philippines for the full 2020 is estimated to contain 296,000 mt of nickel as lower-grade products will account for the lion’s share.

With 98,000 mt Ni supply from other countries, China’s laterite nickel ore supply will total 546,000 mt Ni for 2020, while demand will shrink to 490,000 mt Ni as Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) producers grapple with raw material shortages on the back of Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports from the beginning of 2020.

SMM assessed prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore, 1.5% Ni, at $47.5/wmt, cif China, on July 20, far exceeding a high of $43.5/wmt notched in October 2019 in the wake of the news that Indonesia would ban exports of nickel ore from 2020.