[brief Review of lead in SMM period] there is limited room for aluminum prices to decline in the current week after the first ten days of May.

SMM5, May 5: the overseas epidemic is still spreading during the holidays. As of 00:00 on the 5th, the number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 3.57 million, and the cumulative death toll exceeded 250000. The resulting global economic concerns have not yet been completely alleviated. At the same time, Lianyang pressured metals for three days during the US dollar index holiday. In addition, LME aluminum metal stocks are still at a high level of more than 1.35 million tons. Against the backdrop of weak overseas demand, Lun aluminum remained weak and volatile during the holiday. The center of gravity is down from before the festival, with a low of $1472 a tonne refreshing its lowest level since early April. It is expected that in the case of no significant inflection point of the epidemic abroad, Lun aluminum is difficult to rebound sharply in the short term, and there is still resistance at the US $1500 / ton level above the level in the short term.

As far as China is concerned, in addition to some primary aluminum manufacturers, most of the downstream manufacturers, such as profiles and strip foil, are still in the production state during the holidays. According to the current research, it is expected that the downstream consumption will remain in a good state in the first ten days of May. In addition, the cost-end alumina performance bottoming up trend, because the current domestic alumina operating capacity compared with the previous reduction in the background of electrolytic aluminum plant raw material demand has improved, is expected to maintain a small upward trend in the short term; inventory end, SMM and warehouse exchange learned that the current aluminum plant aluminum-water proportion is relatively large, it is expected that the increase in post-festival inventory is limited, in early May probability will still be the main performance to the warehouse state. To sum up, it is expected that the downward space of aluminum prices in the current week after the festival is limited, and the disk Back structure will still be maintained, because after the festival is the last week before the delivery of the contract, the spot rising range of aluminum ingots is difficult to narrow.

"[holiday market review] the rise and fall of metals in London are mixed with OPEC+ to reduce production and implement a general rise in crude oil futures.

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