[2019.7.22 minutes of nickel internal morning meeting] profit long position closure nickel price correction from high

Judgment of nickel price: the continuous rise of nickel price in the early stage is more divorced from the fundamentals, which is closely related to the positive measures of large stainless steel plants, and the products in each link of the industrial chain are also in a state of passive follow-up. This week, there is a rational return to prices and part of the profit of bulls is normal, wait and see follow-up attention to the trend of funds, unilateral short-term trading can consider homeopathic layout of empty orders, but the warm macro environment, the return of bulls need to be vigilant.

Macroscopically, the initial consumer confidence index at the University of Michigan rose slightly to 98.4 in July from 98.2 in June, close to the best level in more than a decade, and the financial situation is expected to be the best since 2004. Xinhua said on Friday that Chinese companies had asked for US agricultural purchases, which Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, said showed that Sino-US trade negotiations would resume soon.

Nickel spot: last week Russian nickel to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract since Monday discount 1908 yuan / ton continuously narrowed, Friday base this newspaper discount is about 300 yuan / ton. In the first half of the week, steel mills entered the market at the position of 108000 yuan / ton, and the volume was considerable, and the overall trading volume improved in the first half of the week. Prices rose sharply in the second half of the week, basically close to record highs, and downstream purchasing sentiment faded. Russian-nickel discount maintained around 300 yuan / ton, first, due to a substantial loss in imports, the holder expects that the source of imports in the later period is limited; second, close to the cost position, do not want to make a loss on the shipment, so the holder is willing to lift the water. Jinchuan to Shanghai nickel 1908 contract rose 1000 yuan / ton on Monday, the first half of the week basically maintained at 1000 yuan / ton, the second half of the week gradually increased to Friday to 1350 yuan / ton, this week the downstream is basically wait-and-see, only rigid demand for goods. The supply of goods in Jinchuan is tight as a whole, raising the rising water to a certain extent.

Nickel pig iron: due to the rapid and sustained rise in nickel prices, but the fundamental interpretation of the reasons for the rise is relatively missing, the industrial chain for high nickel pig iron prices are quite different, the market quotation is very chaotic, some steel mills choose not to purchase, or price inquiry, and from the seller, nickel prices rose rapidly, and the market supply is not abundant, the quotation is naturally rising, so the transaction is more bleak. Until Thursday afternoon, the southern steel mill bid 1080 to 1090 yuan / nickel point after a large number of purchases, the market transactions re-active. Last week, compared with electrolytic nickel, the sticker of high nickel pig iron increased by 55. 65 yuan / nickel point to 106.95 yuan / nickel point.

Inventories: as of Friday, total nickel inventories in Shanghai, including previous warehouse receipt inventories, were up 6192 tons, or 8.68 per cent, from last week to 77500 tons. The specific changes are as follows: stocks in East China increased by 800 tons to 32300 tons compared with last week, while stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (including Shanghai Tianwei, Capital Management Hall, facing Port, Jiekai and Henry Bath) refined nickel stocks increased by 4000 tons to 18000 tons over the same period.

On 19 July, nickel stocks were 147900 tons, a decrease of 288 tons compared with 18 July.