SMM6 18: early trading non-ferrous rise and fall mixed, not much, Shanghai nickel fell nearly 1%, Shanghai tin fell 0.6%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.2%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.1%, Shanghai lead rose 0.5%, Shanghai copper rose 0.3%. Black is almost wiped out, coke is down 1.8%, iron ore is down nearly 1%, hot rolls are down 0.6%, threads are down 0.3%, and coking coal is up slightly.
As of 05:20 on the 18th, the earthquake in Changning County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province, killed a total of 11 people (8 in Changning and 3 in Gong County). 122 injured: 48 in Changning (37 in Shuanghe, 4 in Changning, 1 in Zhuhai, 3 in Meidong, 2 in Dongdi and 1 in Guhe), including 5 seriously injured, 16 seriously injured and 27 slightly injured; 71 injured in Gong County (65 on patrol, 2 seriously injured, 4 in Daviquan Town, 2 in Didong); 3 in Gaoxian County (Shahe 2, Zaifu 1). Changning was trapped 14 people, rescued 13 people (6 dead), 1 person is being rescued, not life-threatening.
China's refined copper production fell 5.2 per cent to 711000 tonnes in May from a year earlier, down 3.9 per cent from a month earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. China's lead production rose 7.1 per cent in May from a year earlier to 452000 tonnes, but is the lowest since September 2018, and the Bureau of Statistics usually does not provide monthly data for January and February. China's zinc production rose 7.4 per cent to 480000 tonnes in May from a year earlier, while alumina production rose 0.1 per cent to 6.243 million tonnes in May from a year earlier. China's iron ore production rose 1.5 per cent in May from a year earlier to 70.787 million tons. China produced 4.908 million tons of aluminum in May, up 4.8 per cent from a year earlier; from January to May 2019, China's aluminum production totaled 21.98 million tons, up 6.5 per cent from a year earlier. In the nickel market, the Indonesian flood affected the loading of nickel mines, and the short-term port nickel mines are still sufficient. The late recovery of ferronickel affected by floods in Indonesia depends on weather changes. Xinhai, Shandong Province, the largest new production capacity in China, has been put into production, foreign nickel and iron projects have been put into production, and the price is stable and weak.
Iron ore supply is stable, Australian mine shipments are expected to fall seasonally after July. The demand side is dominated in the near future, and the continuous contraction of steel mill profits makes the sustainability of high demand in doubt. At present, the iron ore is at a historically high level, which is not too cold, and there is a certain risk of pullback. On the steel side, demand for seasonal weakness, last week social inventory and steel plant inventory began to accumulate, traders shipping is not smooth, steel mills willing to back down, superimposed raw material futures price correction, steel prices under pressure adjustment. Demand can still be expected after the off-season.
Crude oil fell 2.7%. EIA said in its monthly drilling rig productivity report that production of the seven major shale oils in the United States is expected to reach a record 8.52 million barrels per day in July. At the same time, the Saudi oil minister of the G20 Energy Ministers meeting reiterated his desire to extend production cuts in the second half of the year, but the date of the meeting was not finalized because of Iran's opposition.
Today's forecast:
Copper: although the copper price has the mine end contraction support, but because the overall macro environment has not seen the improvement, the market demand is weak also fails to bring the copper price impetus, the copper price upward impact space is limited. At present, Shanghai copper is still under pressure on the 5th and 10th EMA pressure point, the technical support is weak. Spot, after the end of delivery yesterday, market holders increased willingness to push forward, is expected to continue today, high prices inhibit market transactions, the overall trading is difficult to have a lively market. It is expected that today's London copper 5820 to 5870 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 46100 to 46600 yuan / ton, spot water 20 to 80 yuan / ton.
Aluminum: yesterday, Shanghai Aluminum moved to the 1907 contract. Today, the Shanghai Aluminum Company 1908 contract is expected to run at 13700 to 14000 yuan / ton, and the spot to the current month's rising water is 0 to 20 yuan / ton.
Lead: the Office of the United States Trade Representative held a seven-day hearing on whether to impose tariffs on another US $300 billion worth of goods exported to the United States. The economic and trade situation still needs sustained attention. At the same time, the people's Bank of China continues to carry out reverse repurchase operations to ensure the liquidity of funds in the middle of the year. In addition, there is no improvement in transactions in the lead spot market. Recycled refined lead maintains discount shipments, and demand is still in a diversion state. In addition, there has been an increase in the maintenance of primary lead refineries. Spot lead is expected to rise 125 to 16100 to 16250 yuan per ton today.
Zinc: overnight zinc stop yin and yang, the lower shadow line in the lower track of Brin Road to find support, the upper 5, 10 days EMA bonding to form a strong suppression, within the day return space is very limited, or the interval runs at 2430 to 2480. Driven by the return of the outer plate overnight, Shanghai zinc significantly reduced its position by more than 24000 hands, but the upper 5-10-day EMA formed a strong suppression. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc main contract may be weak near the 5-10-day EMA, running at 19750-20250 yuan / ton. Material 0 # domestic to 1907 contract liter water 180 to 220, double swallow liter water 240 to 280.
Tin: due to the decline in crude oil prices and the sharp increase in inventories, Lunxi fell in the form of a long Yin line yesterday. The lower support of Lunxi is expected to be around $18500 / ton on the previous platform, and the upper resistance is around $19300 / ton. It is estimated that the lower support of Shanghai tin is located at the high point of 143500 yuan / ton in the early stage of the platform, and the upper resistance is located at 144800 yuan / ton of 5-day moving average. Spot market, Shanghai tin last night jumped low to open the center of gravity down, today is expected to maintain the mainstream trading price at 143, 000 to 144, 500 yuan / ton.
