SMM12 26: some market participants said that China's property market and the U. S. stock market is currently the world's two largest market bubbles, the market bubble is because it is important.
Americans directly allocate stocks to nearly 40% of residents' financial assets, and another 50% are allocated to pensions and insurance, of which nearly 40% are still stocks, which can be said to be the lifeblood of the American economy.
Chinese people rely on houses for financial management
The lifeblood of the Chinese people is in real estate. Chinese people account for 80% of their wealth in real estate, the highest in the world.
There is a set of data that can give an overview of how real estate exists in the Chinese market: more than 30 per cent of China's GDP is related to real estate, more than 50 per cent of fiscal revenue is related to real estate, and more than 50 per cent of tax revenue is related to real estate. More than 50 per cent of infrastructure is related to real estate, more than 50 per cent of bank financial institutions are related to real estate, and more than 60 per cent of manufacturing is related to real estate. The development of China's economy is closely related to the real estate market.
The Reform of tax Distribution system leads to Land Finance
China's economy depends on real estate, and local governments rely more on real estate. The 1994 tax-sharing reform became a watershed. The system stipulates that 75% of the largest value-added tax goes to the central government and 25% to the government. As a result, local governments are on the road to land finance. This kind of financial revenue through the transfer of land use rights to earn the transfer fee has become the most important source of financial revenue for local governments. Data show that 70% to 80% of housing prices are land transfer fees and various taxes and fees, all owned by the government, which is also the main reason for the high housing prices.
The chairman of CCB made an astonishing remark
At the 20th Beijing University Sinorama New year Forum, Tian Guo, chairman of the Construction Bank, issued a surprising remark, "tell you a rule, now you can not make money to buy a house, and then buy is a high order."
In retrospect in the second half of 2018, it is an indisputable fact that the property market has cooled and the car market has cooled down, and the myth that the whole property market has only gone up and down has been quietly shattered. In the past, when the leverage ratio of local governments and private enterprises was not high, they could borrow to carry out economic construction. After 2009, the leverage ratio between Chinese enterprises and the government soared sharply, and the debt drive was no longer feasible. Not only did it not work, but it also reduced leverage. Reducing the size of debt, followed by a reversal of expectations of the property market, after which house prices are reversed, especially in first-tier cities, where the so-called river ducks are the first to feel the smell of spring.
Future property market
The stock market crashes of 2008 and 2015 are not far away, and some people have suffered heavy losses as a result of chasing up and down. China's housing prices to rise again, the debt problem is the biggest constraint, in the universe's first housing company Vanke are shouting to live today, who else is willing to invest in real estate with great fanfare? The rational judgment of property prices can only go down. Now it is a first-and second-tier city. Some small cities need to make up for the rise. It is expected that it will slowly spread to the third and fourth lines. How much can it drop depends on the government. At present, the government's intervention in the property market is more resolute. There are a lot of controls. The market is not fully open.
Non-agricultural construction land will no longer "have to be state-owned"
This is the news of the hot fire the other day. Sources said that the draft amendments to the Land Management Law and the Urban Real Estate Management Law submitted to the standing Committee of the National people's Congress on the 23rd deleted the current Land Management Law on the use of land for non-agricultural construction. Provisions on the use of state-owned land or the original collective land requisitioned as state-owned.
At present, our land is mainly divided into state-owned land and rural collective-owned land. The law stipulates that real estate developers must use state-owned land for building houses. The government has played an intermediary role in it. After the nationalization of land expropriation at a low price, Sell it to real estate developers at a high price. The draft amendment now proposed removes this provision, which means that in the future, property developers can take land and build houses directly from farmers, and when these houses are completed, they can develop industry and commerce, service industries, and tourism. It can also be built into public rental housing, low-rent housing and so on. On the one hand, it greatly reduces the land price, on the other hand, it forcibly reduces the local government's dependence on land finance, which is conducive to the transformation of local government functions in the future. Land reform is beginning to show signs, which is also a sign that the government is gradually pulling out of the market.
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