Geopolitical Disruptions Drove Repeated Bull-Bear Reversals, BC Copper Saw Wild Swings with Slight Gains [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

Published: Apr 20, 2026 17:29

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 91,360 yuan/mt, touching a low of 90,580 yuan/mt at the start of the session before fluctuating upward. During the day session, it opened higher with a gap, reaching a high of 92,080 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back and swung wildly, ultimately closing at 91,220 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Open interest stood at 6,534 lots, down 258 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 6,586 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. On the macro front, Iran's foreign minister announced that commercial vessels could transit the Strait of Hormuz normally, easing market risk-aversion sentiment somewhat. However, the optimistic expectations released by Trump regarding a second round of US-Iran negotiations were refuted by the Iranian side. Bullish and bearish sentiment fluctuated repeatedly, and the market remained cautious overall, with copper prices moving sideways. On the fundamentals front, supply side, imported copper arrivals increased, while domestic supply remained tight due to smelter maintenance. Demand side, with copper prices fluctuating at highs, downstream buyers mainly made just-in-time procurement. Regarding inventories, as of Monday, April 20, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide decreased 12.21% WoW from the previous Monday.

 

SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,620 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2605 contract at 91,220 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 103,078 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper was -458, remaining inverted but narrowing compared to the previous day.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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