Magnesium Market’s Short-Term Volatile Pattern Unchanged; Downstream Resumption of Work and Geopolitical Developments Become Key Variables [SMM Magnesium Weekly Review]

1 Market Review

1 Dolomite

This week, the ex-works, tax-exclusive price of 1-3 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 108 yuan/mt, basically flat WoW, and the ex-works, tax-exclusive price of 2-4 cm dolomite (Wutai) was 138 yuan/mt, basically flat WoW.

This week, the domestic dolomite market held steady. In terms of supply, regional structural divergence emerged: top-tier enterprises in the Wutai area remained shut down, while capacity in other major producing areas promptly ramped up to supplement volumes, keeping overall national supply generally stable. Demand side, operating rates at primary magnesium enterprises in the main producing areas of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia remained stable, with rigid demand released in an orderly manner. Enterprises’ raw material inventory stayed ample, providing strong support to the market. Based on the supply and demand fundamentals, dolomite prices held steady.

1.2.1 Magnesium Ingot (Fugu, Shenmu - Main Producing Areas)

This week, magnesium prices held up well. As of press time, mainstream transaction prices for 99.90% magnesium ingot in the main producing areas were stable at 16,700 yuan/mt, basically flat WoW.

This week, domestic magnesium prices continued to consolidate at elevated levels. The game between sellers and buyers intensified, and prices fluctuated rangebound within a narrow range. Supply side, primary magnesium smelters in the main producing areas, supported by costs and affected by tight spot cargo availability, showed strong reluctance to sell. Mainstream transaction prices for 99.9% magnesium ingot held steady at 16,700 yuan/mt. Low-priced supply was scarce, leaving limited room for negotiation. Demand side showed a dual weakness both domestically and overseas. In domestic trade, downstream enterprises’ pre-holiday stockpiling had covered through after the Lantern Festival, and magnesium alloy producers’ purchasing needed to wait for full production resumptions in the die-casting segment; in the short term, they only maintained rigid-demand restocking, with weak purchasing momentum. Overseas, escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted shipping and pushed up freight rates; magnesium ingot export shipments were suspended, overseas clients generally postponed purchasing plans, and export demand came under pressure. Overall, the magnesium market this week showed a pronounced stalemate in supply and demand, with prices lacking momentum for a one-way move. In the short term, it was still expected to be dominated by fluctuate rangebound, with close attention needed on downstream work-resumption progress and changes in the geopolitical situation.

1.2.2 Magnesium Ingot (Tianjin Port - China FOB)

This week, China FOB prices were assessed at $2,420-2,480/mt, with an average of $2,450/mt. This week, the magnesium ingot export market was heavily impacted by ocean freight rate fluctuations, and transactions were weak.

This week, affected by volatility in the international situation, crude oil prices and shipping capacity fluctuations intensified, driving ocean freight rates sharply higher. As of press time, magnesium ingot CIF India was quoted at $2,540-2,600/mt, up $60 from early in the week; CIF Netherlands was quoted at $2,510-2,580/mt, up $10. Amid price fluctuations, exporters and downstream users mostly stayed on the sidelines, waiting for the market to stabilize. The current FOB Tianjin Port quotation held at $2,450/mt, flat WoW. New orders were weak this week, and uncertainty in the export market further increased.

1.3 Magnesium Powder

This week, the mainstream VAT-included ex-factory prices for China’s 20-80 mesh magnesium powder market were 17,850-18,050 yuan/mt; China’s FOB prices were $2,580-2,640/mt.

Overall, the magnesium powder market held steady this week. Supported by firm raw material quotations, magnesium powder prices were raised slightly. The current market mainly focused on fulfilling earlier orders, with limited new orders. Export side, affected by unstable shipping, traders and downstream clients continued to maintain a wait-and-see sentiment; domestic trade side, as downstream enterprises had relatively sufficient stockpiling ahead of the holiday, the overall market also remained wait-and-see.

1.4 Magnesium Alloy

This week, the mainstream VAT-included ex-factory prices for China’s magnesium alloy market were 18,800-19,100 yuan/mt, and the mainstream FOB prices for China’s magnesium alloy were $2,690-2,760/mt.

This week, the domestic benchmark price for magnesium alloy held up well, and the processing fee remained stable and firm. Cost side, the weekly average price of the core raw material, magnesium ingot, was raised slightly, while the auxiliary material A00 aluminum ingot rose unilaterally, providing strong cost support. Supply and demand, the operating rate of magnesium alloy enterprises rebounded slightly, and downstream die-casting plants gradually resumed work and production, with procurement demand recovering step by step; at present, both supply and demand were weak, transactions were relatively mild, and magnesium alloy prices were expected to remain mainly stable in the short term.

2 Weekly Summary

This week, the domestic dolomite market held steady. On the supply side, regional structural divergence emerged: top-tier enterprises in the Wutai area halted production, while capacity in other major producing areas was replenished in a timely manner, keeping overall national supply stable. On the demand side, primary magnesium enterprises in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia maintained stable operating rates, with rigid demand released in an orderly manner and ample raw material inventory, reinforcing the foundation for market stability. The domestic magnesium ingot market consolidated at high levels, with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensifying and prices fluctuating rangebound. On the supply side, supported by costs and tight spot cargo, enterprises showed strong reluctance to sell; low-priced supply was scarce and bargaining room was minimal. On the demand side, both domestic and overseas demand were weak: in domestic trade, downstream buyers only restocked for rigid demand, with weak purchasing intensity; in exports, affected by the escalation of the Middle East situation, shipping was disrupted and freight rates rose, export shipments were suspended, and overseas procurement plans were delayed. Under the supply-demand stalemate, prices lacked momentum for a one-way move. The export market for magnesium ingot was impacted by ocean freight rate fluctuations and the international situation, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the industry; transactions were weak and uncertainty increased. The magnesium powder market, supported by raw materials, remained stable with slight adjustments, mainly fulfilling earlier orders, with very few new orders; both domestic and export markets maintained a wait-and-see stance. The magnesium alloy market held up well: magnesium ingot and aluminum ingot prices reinforced cost support, enterprise operating rates rebounded slightly, and demand recovered as downstream die-casting plants gradually resumed operations. Transactions were mild, and prices were expected to remain mainly stable in the short term.