The macro front remained calm, with a strong sense of market wait-and-see sentiment. Next week's macro policies will be the key guidance for the market outlook. [SMM Macro Weekly Review]

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Macro side, this week's macro data was quiet, with the copper market showing a pattern of "tactical caution" and "structural constructiveness" coexisting. Short-term fluctuations were mainly due to the two-way game between US trade policy expectations and Chinese demand adjustments: on one hand, market concerns over the US potentially imposing Section 232 tariffs on China pushed up COMEX copper prices, leading to a record high in the COMEX-LME price spread and stimulating US copper inventory hoarding. While this could alleviate local shortages, on the other hand, China's policy easing expectations formed a price-insensitive demand support, partially offsetting weak demand in traditional sectors.

Fundamentally, this week, the just-in-time procurement demand from large smelters in the copper concentrate market remained, and copper cathode supply in South America tightened again. For copper cathodes, shipments to the US have been arriving at ports, and SMM expects 250,000-300,000 mt of copper cathodes to flow into the US in March-April. In Asia, B/Ls canceled from LME Asia are about to arrive in China and Southeast Asia, with copper cathode supply slightly easing. Domestically, due to the jump in copper prices, social inventories destocked slowly this week, with weekly premiums under pressure and slightly declining, but SHFE near-month contracts have shifted to a BACK structure, indicating that the fundamental balance remains tight.

Looking ahead to next week, the CSPT group meeting on March 31 and the US trade policy update on April 2 are key near-term events. If tough tariffs are imposed on China-related copper products, prices may be suppressed, but the probability of aggressive escalation is low due to procedural constraints. In the long term, the logic of the copper supply-demand gap remains unchanged. Overall, short-term policy disturbances need to be cautious, but if trade risks ease, copper's structural value as an inflation hedge asset will further stand out, and H2 price trends will depend on China's reserve procurement pace and the global supply chain's ability to digest tariff impacts.LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $9,800-10,000/mt, and SHFE copper between 79,500-81,000 yuan/mt. Spot side, after copper prices jumped initially and then pulled back, end-user orders increased, with restocking sentiment stimulating downstream purchase willingness, and the destocking trend is expected to continue. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2504 contract are expected to range from a discount of 30 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

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