High-carbon ferrochrome February review and March outlook [SMM analysis

As of March 8, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome natural blocks in Inner Mongolia was 8600-8700 yuan/50 base tons, and the average price of high-carbon ferrochrome remained stable in the month......
As of March 8, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome natural blocks in Inner Mongolia was 8600-8700 yuan/50 base tons, and the average price of high-carbon ferrochrome remained stable in the month. In February, the price of mainstream stainless steel mills continued to be flat, and the price of Tsingshan Steel was 8495 yuan/50 base tons. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the output of stainless steel fell further to 2.6077 million tons, and the demand for ferrochrome also shrank. The output of ferrochrome has decreased to 591,800 tons under the continuous inversion of some ferrochrome manufacturers, and the supply level is still high. Although the retail price of ferrochrome remained stable under the support of cost, the transaction remained cold.
In February, the cost of high-carbon ferrochrome smelting decreased slightly, and as of March 8, the cost of spot raw materials in Inner Mongolia was 8,234 yuan/50 base tons, down 93 yuan/50 base tons from the previous month, a decrease of 1.12%; The retail ex-factory price profit of ferrochrome manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is about 416 yuan/50 base tons, and the cost advantage of Inner Mongolia is still relatively obvious. Coke prices completed two rounds of reductions in the month, and the price of secondary metallurgical coke fell by 200 yuan/ton, as of March 8, the ex-factory price of secondary metallurgical coke in Inner Mongolia reached 1900 yuan/ton, but the recent coking plant issued an announcement to raise the price, and it is more difficult for coke prices to fall further. In terms of electricity prices, the domestic electricity tariff in Mongolia rose slightly to 0.4 yuan/kWh during the month. In terms of chrome ore prices, the price of 40-42% chromium concentrate in Tianjin Port reached 59.5 yuan/ton as of March 8. Due to the significant decline in the volume of South Africa in the early stage, the arrival of chrome ore in February declined significantly, but before and after the Spring Festival holiday in February, transportation was restricted, and the pre-holiday reserve of ferrochrome manufacturers was relatively sufficient, and the port inventory was higher. The inventory of chrome ore ports is high, the profit margins of ferrochrome manufacturers are limited, and the resistance to further higher mine prices is greater. On the whole, although the inversion of the Inner Mongolia Iron Works has been repaired, the Southern Iron Works is still in a general upside-down, and the cost support of ferrochrome is still strong. SMM expects the price of high-carbon ferrochrome to rise and fall in March. In March, the increase in stainless steel production was obvious, and there may be a small supply gap under the current ferrochrome production expectation. Although the raw material inventory of steel mills is abundant in the early stage, ferrochrome will not become a limiting factor for stainless steel production increase in the short term, but if stainless steel maintains a high production schedule, the problem of oversupply of ferrochrome will be reversed. In addition, under the high cost, the profits of the iron plant are meager, and even the southern iron plant is mostly in the cost inversion, and the price of ferrochrome is easy to rise and fall under the high price of mine.