According to SMM statistics, the domestic social inventory of aluminium billets on February 22 was 275,700 mt, up 16,200 mt from Feb 18, and up 77,700 mt from pre-CNY holiday level. In terms of weekly inventory changes after CNY in the past six years, the inventory grew by 16,000 mt or 6.2%, reflecting a significantly smaller growth compared with pre-CNY holiday level and the past five years. However, due to the weather impact on shipments, the inventory pressure after CNY holiday has eased but is still severe. Amid high production and high inventories at factories, it may only be a matter of time before the inventory exceeds 300,000 mt. The peak of post-holiday inventory is expected to be around 350,000 mt.
On the supply, SMM data showed that China’s aluminium billet output stood at 1.268 million mt in January 2024 (31 days), down 35,000 mt or 2.69% MoM, but up 252,000 mt or 22.89% YoY. The operating rate of aluminium billet stood at 65.0% in January, down 1.7% MoM but up 7.4 % YoY.
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