SMM Exclusive Analysis of Stainless Steel Production Review and forecast

Stainless steel Production Review and forecast

According to SMM research, the total national stainless steel production in January 2024 was about 2.893 million tons, a decrease of about 4.05% month on month and an increase of about 24.34% year-on-year. Among them, by department, the production of 200 series stainless steel is about 687000 tons, a decrease of about 16.78% compared to the previous month and an increase of about 3% year-on-year; The production of 300 series stainless steel is about 1.581 million tons, a decrease of about 1.31% month on month and an increase of about 25.41% year-on-year; The production of 400 series stainless steel is about 625000 tons, an increase of about 6.38% month on month and about 56.64% year-on-year. In addition, the total stainless steel production in Indonesia in January was about 380000 tons, a decrease of about 7.32% month on month and an increase of about 35.71% year-on-year.

In January, after New Year's Day, the stainless steel market opened low and fluctuated upwards, with the SS contract reaching 14400 yuan/ton, creating an active trading atmosphere for stainless steel. Although it has entered a seasonal maintenance period, production is maintained by 300 series stainless steel production enterprises, and some steel mills have maintained their overall level in December due to a slight reduction in maintenance production. The 200 series stainless steel plants in North China, which mainly rely on the smelting of waste stainless steel, were affected by production capacity compliance inspections and were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a production volume of approximately 40000 tons of 200 series stainless steel. In addition, some steel plants in Guangxi region underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a decrease of approximately 138200 tons in production volume, a decrease of approximately 16.78% compared to the previous period. The production of the 400 series has increased slightly, but due to the management of the annual production target of the state-owned steel plant in December, the production has slightly declined. The overall production resumed in January, increasing by about 37500 tons compared to December.

In February, as we enter the Spring Festival holiday, some steel mills in China undergo routine maintenance one after another. In addition, February only lasts for 29 days, resulting in a decline in production compared to January. Due to the good performance of the steel plant in receiving orders for the February period and the current small profit margin in producing stainless steel, the overall impact of maintenance is expected to be relatively small. On the foreign side, stainless steel was still in the off-season of consumption in the first quarter, and Indonesian steel mills adjusted their production pace, resulting in a slight decrease in production. It is expected that Indonesian stainless steel production will decrease by about 2.63% month on month in February.

It is expected that the domestic stainless steel production in February will be about 2.684 million tons, a decrease of 7.22% compared to the previous month. Among them, the production of 200 series stainless steel is about 721000 tons, an increase of about 4.95% compared to the previous period; The production of 300 series stainless steel is about 1.377 million tons, a decrease of about 12.9% compared to the previous period; The production of 400 series stainless steel is about 586000 tons, a decrease of about 6.24% compared to the previous period.

Please do not hesitate to contact Jean at jeantang@smm.cn or 86-19946295759 if you have any question or inquiry.