LME copper prices opened at $7996/mt and closed at $7938/mt last Friday evening, a drop of 0.33%, with the low-end of $7927.5/mt and the high-end of $8000/mt. Trading volume was 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 272,000 lots. The most active SHFE 2311 copper contract prices opened at 66420 yuan/mt and finished at 66180 yuan/mt last Friday evening, down 0.38%, with the low-end of 65890 yuan/mt and the high-end of 66390 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 32,000 lots, and open interest stood at 162,000 lots.
On the macro front, Fed Harker said the Fed may have completed raising interest rates, supporting a longer-term high interest rate stance. Economic growth will slow next year, but a recession is not expected. After Fed Harker's speech, swaps reduced the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year.
On the fundamentals, as of October 13, SMM copper inventory across major Chinese markets increased by 3,000 mt from last Monday to 117,300 mt, up 23,700 mt from pre-holiday level. Due to the arrival of a large amount of imported copper in East China after the holidays, the inventory increase is more obvious. In South China, due to lower copper prices after the holidays, downstream buyers replenished stocks after the holidays, resulting in a decline in inventories. Given low copper prices, demand is expected to remain acceptable. The copper prices will remain at low levels against a high US dollar.
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