Macro overview
In its latest US GDP forecast, Goldman Sachs cut its US GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 3.4 per cent from 3.8 per cent previously.
This is due to weaker expectations of fiscal stimulus and the spread of O'Micron mutants. This may restrain the post-mayor's US bond yields and the rise of the US dollar to a certain extent. on the other hand, the current crude oil price continues to show a sharp rise, which makes the already high level of inflation more difficult to control. therefore, the probability of stagflation in the future is further increased, so at present, for precious metals, it is still recommended to inhale mainly in bargain-hunting.
Overview of fundamentals
Last trading day (January 17), the gold trading volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 17402 kg, down 5.35% from the previous trading day.
Silver turnover was 2150466 kg, up 48.96 per cent from the previous day. The gold stock of the last Futures Exchange was 3408 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver inventory is down 6218 kg from the previous trading day to 2197230 kg.
The newly announced SPDR ETF position in gold was 976.21 tons, unchanged from the previous day. Silver SLV ETF's position was 16443.50 tons, unchanged from the previous day. However, from the point of view of the known precious metal ETF total position, it is still in a relatively high position.
Yesterday (January 17), the CSI 300 index rose 0.86 per cent from the previous day, while the electronic components sector rose 2.29 per cent over the previous day.
Strategy:
Gold: long for bargain
Silver: long for bargain
Gold and silver ratio: do more for bargains
Internal and external arbitrage: internal and external anti-arbitrage
Risk point: the central bank's monetary policy orientation has changed.
