SMM7 March 14: the outer metal market was mixed yesterday, and Lun Copper stabilized on Tuesday, but it was weighed down by falling imports from China, a major consumer, and demand concerns caused by rising inventories, while a stronger dollar also dragged down copper prices. Today, the whole LME metal market is green. As of 09:40 in the morning, Lun Copper is down nearly 0.3%, Lun Aluminum and Lun Zinc are down nearly 0.5%, Lun lead is down nearly 0.4%, Lun Ni is down nearly 0.6%, and Lunxi is flat. On the domestic side, international copper and Shanghai copper are down nearly 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum is up nearly 0.2%, Shanghai lead and Shanghai zinc are down nearly 1.2%, Shanghai nickel is down nearly 0.3%, and Shanghai tin is slightly green.
On the copper side, on the macro side, the US CPI announced overnight surged 5.4% year-on-year in June, with the core CPI reaching a 30-year high. The higher-than-expected inflation data reinforced growing speculation that the Fed's case for tightening policy was growing as the dollar climbed along with US bond yields and copper futures came under pressure. In the near future, the market is still in the double game of economic recovery and Fed tightening expectations, waiting.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] US CPI data hit a record high and market worries add to the pressure on copper prices.
In terms of aluminum, on a macro level, liquidity is abundant around the world. Fundamentally, the current aluminum consumption shows signs of weakening to the off-season, but the aluminum ingot inventory has not yet fully entered the accumulation cycle, while the aluminum bar inventory appears the phenomenon of small accumulation. In July, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has been slightly repaired, and it is expected that the inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum will first decline and then increase, or it may be bad for aluminum prices in the last ten days. Short-term domestic aluminum prices to maintain high volatility, continue to pay attention to the inflection point and multi-short mood changes.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Aluminium prices remain high and the spot discount has not been substantially opened.
In terms of lead, overnight, Shanghai lead short positions increased again, dragging down Shanghai lead briefly below the 20-day moving average, with 15500 yuan / ton below the first line of support. Under the background that domestic lead consumption tends to be light, the effect of market delivery is positive. As of yesterday, the warehouse receipt inventory of lead ingots on the Futures Exchange increased by another 7751 tons to 133418 tons. At the same time, the Futures Exchange approved the expansion of Tianjin Lutong warehouse to 20, 000 tons, and the lead ingot warehouse is expected to intensify. It is expected that today.
[minutes of SMM lead Morning meeting] lead weakening overnight is expected to continue this week.
In terms of zinc, overnight Shanghai zinc recorded a small positive line, but the daily K center of gravity moved downward, each average line was suppressed above, and the lower Bollinger Road rail provided support. Fundamentals, both mining and smelting supply increased in June, consumption in the off-season decreased slightly, social inventory continued to accumulate, indicating that the inventory inflection point may have appeared, and the fundamentals support is weak. Pay attention to macro guidance in the short term.
[minutes of SMM Zinc Morning meeting] the fundamentals support is weak and the price of zinc is adjusted downwards overnight.
In terms of nickel, the overnight Shanghai nickel main 2108 contract jumped low at 139940 yuan / ton, with short positions mainly driving nickel prices lower and higher to close at 140310 yuan / ton, up 360 yuan / ton, or 0.26%, compared with the previous trading day. Lenny opened at $18660 a tonne yesterday, with intraday widths fluctuating to close at $18725 a tonne, up $50 a tonne from the previous day's settlement price. An increase of 0.27%. Future nickel wide shock operation, strong fundamental support, but if there is no obvious bullish news stimulation in the short term, nickel prices continue to explore resistance is still large.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the consolidation of Shanghai Nickel 140000 gate seeks a new stimulus, the spot is afraid of heights, and few transactions have been made.
In terms of black, threads rose nearly 1.2%, hot rolls rose nearly 1.3%, coking coal rose nearly 2.3%, coke rose nearly 1.2%, and iron ore rose nearly 0.2%. In terms of threads, crude steel reduction policies continued to be brewed in some provinces in mid-July, superimposed by central bank reserve cuts to stimulate steel prices to rise. However, the off-season trading volume is weak and it is difficult to support the continuous rise in steel prices. Therefore, although the profitability of steel enterprises has recovered, the tight supply of scrap steel and blocked sales of finished products have not improved, and some electric furnace plants continue to adjust their production independently to reduce production saturation. The utilization rate of electric furnace capacity is expected to maintain medium-high operation in the near future. Steel prices continue to rise under pressure and concussion.
[minutes of SMM Steel Morning meeting] Steel exports rebounded sharply in June & the news conference of the State New Administration Office released a signal to stabilize the economy.
Crude oil rose nearly 2.3 per cent in the previous period and international oil prices closed higher on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency ((IEA)) said market supplies should tighten in the short term because of disagreements among major oil-producing countries over how much extra crude to supply to the world. The EIA (EIA) 's weekly crude oil inventory report will be released at 22:30 on Wednesday.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold rose nearly 0.3%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.9%. International gold prices were basically flat on Tuesday as a stronger dollar offset support from bets that the Fed is unlikely to tighten monetary policy immediately. Last month, the U. S. consumer price index ((CPI)) recorded the biggest increase in 13 years. The US consumer price index (CPI) posted its biggest increase in 13 years in June as the prices of travel-related services continued to rebound from the depressed levels of novel coronavirus's era as supply constraints and momentum of the economic recovery gained momentum.
As of 09:40, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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