Non-farm data released by the Labor Department for June were significantly higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rebounded. As of press time, spot gold jumped nearly $13 to $1793.91 an ounce, a cumulative fluctuation of more than $17. On Friday, July 2, 2030, the U.S. Department of Labor released higher-than-expected non-farm data for June, but the unemployment rate rebounded. As of press time, spot gold jumped nearly $13 to $1793.91 an ounce, a cumulative fluctuation of more than $17.
Specific data show that the United States added 850000 non-farm payrolls in June, significantly higher than the expected increase of 720000, and the previous value was revised up from 559000 to 583000. The unemployment rate in the United States rebounded 0.1 percent to 5.90 percent in June, 0.3 percentage points higher than expected. The labor force participation rate in the United States in June was unchanged at 61.60 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than expected.
Us Bureau of Labor Statistics: employment opportunities in leisure and hospitality, public and private education, professional and business services, retail trade and other services have increased significantly.
Non-farm payrolls data for June showed that with the expiration of previous unemployment benefits subsidies, American people's willingness to look for jobs began to pick up, which is still an optimistic sign for the medium-and long-term prospects of the economy; but the still low labor force participation rate shows that there is still a long way to go to promote employment, which curbs further optimism in the market.
CNBC non-farm immediate comments: job growth accelerated in June as companies want to keep pace with the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy, according to a report released Friday by the U.S. Labor Department.
The US economy may grow at its fastest pace in decades in 2021
The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives approved a $715 billion bill on ground transportation and water infrastructure on Thursday. Democrats see this as the first step towards Congress's hope to complete comprehensive infrastructure legislation by September.
The International Monetary Fund ((IMF)) on Thursday sharply raised its forecast for US economic growth in 2021 to 7.0 per cent from 4.6 per cent in April. The revised growth estimate is the fastest in the United States in decades. The agency raised its forecast for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 4.9 per cent, up from the 3.5 per cent forecast in April.
IMF said the new forecast assumes that Congress will pass the infrastructure, social spending and tax plans proposed by the Biden administration this year, namely, the US jobs plan and the US family plan, and that the final size and composition will be similar to the original proposal.
In its updated forecast, the Congressional Budget Office ((CBO)) indicates that (GDP) growth is expected to reach 7.4 per cent in 2021, slow to 3.1 per cent in 2022 and 1.1 per cent in 2023. The US government's budget deficit will fall slightly to about $3,000bn in fiscal year 2021, and despite an increase in novel coronavirus's aid spending, economic growth and tax revenues have rebounded more strongly than previously forecast.
The US economy maintained strong growth at the end of the second quarter, thanks to vaccination that allowed the economy to restart. More than 150 million Americans have been fully vaccinated, and pandemic-related restrictions on businesses and masks have been lifted.
But people are not willing to return to work.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell more than expected last week, while layoffs fell to a 21-year low in June, suggesting that the job market is gaining momentum to recover from the novel coronavirus pandemic, but a shortage of willing labour is hampering recruitment.
In June, the manufacturing employment index shrank for the first time in seven months. In a survey of national manufacturing activity, (ISM), an association for supply management, noted that manufacturers reported "difficulties in recruiting and retaining direct labour" and noted that these challenges "remain the main obstacles to accelerated growth throughout the value chain".
The rising novel coronavirus vaccination rate in the United States is promoting job recovery in the food and accommodation industries, but it does not do much to help the employment situation in industries where it is easier to work from home, according to a blog published by the Chicago Fed on Thursday.
Politicians, businesses and some economists blame the labor shortage on higher unemployment benefits, including $300 a week in government subsidies. Lack of affordable child care and fear of infecting novel coronavirus are also reasons why employees, mainly women, stay at home.
In addition, it is also related to epidemic-related retirement and career changes. Analysts generally expect labour shortages to ease in the autumn as schools reopen and government-funded unemployment benefits end, but warn that many unemployed people may never return to work. Record highs in the stock market and soaring house prices have also encouraged people to retire early.
SungWonSohn, a professor of finance and economics at Loyola Marymont University in Los Angeles, says there are jobs but no workers. Since the outbreak, the minimum wage that workers are willing to accept has risen sharply. "many workers have exaggerated views on the value of their skills, so they are unwilling to go back to work at current wages."
JamesKnightley, chief international analyst at ING, said: "the impact of labour shortages may abate from September, but this is not certain because there are signs that more than 2 million people have retired early in the past year."
The rebound in inflation will not last long, even though companies are looking for talent to raise wages.
According to job search engine Indeed, 4.1 per cent of job advertisements had incentives in the seven days to June 18, more than double the 1.8 per cent in the week ended July 1, 2020. In the month ended June 18, incentives ranged from $100 to $30,000, including signing bonuses, retention bonuses or one-off cash rewards after employment.
According to job postings on Poachedjobs.com, a national restaurant / hotel recruitment website, some restaurant jobs earn as much as $27 an hour, plus tips. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, but it is higher in some states.
RonHetrick, director of human resources products at Emsi, a labor market data company, said: "the fact is that the competition for talent will be so fierce that companies can no longer think that there will be enough manpower to meet the demand."
Amid strong demand, companies eager to increase production and services have raised wages and offered incentives to attract millions of unemployed Americans to return to the labour market. Few doubt that the Fed is becoming more hawkish.
But at a time when employment is not expected to return to pre-epidemic levels until some time in 2022, rising wages are unlikely to worry Fed officials, even if inflation rises as a result of suppressed supply. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell has repeatedly reiterated that he expects the rise in inflation to be temporary.
MattKing, global market strategist at Citi Bank, said on Thursday that the rebound in inflation in major economies was temporary and that wage growth was still lacking. "I think it's temporary," he said at a media summit in Citi Bank. "I don't think what we're seeing is just a bottleneck. We need a continuous wage price cycle. I don't think there's any change in that."
