On the evening of May 7 in Beijing, the U.S. Department of Labor released its April non-farm payrolls report. Data show that US non-farm payrolls rose by 266000 in April after a quarterly adjustment, far less than the expected increase of 1 million, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 per cent and expected 5.8 per cent. In the United States, the change in non-farm payrolls in March was revised to 770000 after the quarterly adjustment, with an initial value of 916000.
The market was surprised by the much weaker-than-expected non-farm data. After the non-farm data, the dollar index plummeted, falling to a two-month low; the main COMEX gold contract rose sharply, hitting a nearly three-month high of $1844.6 an ounce; and LME copper hit an all-time high, hitting an intraday high of $10440 a tonne.
Precious metals have a strong upward trend.
Unlike the strength of the non-ferrous plate, the performance of the precious metal plate is much less than that of the precious metal plate. The strengthening of nominal yields on US debt led to continued weakness in precious metals in the first quarter of this year, before inflation rose. But precious metals rebounded after the recent strengthening of inflation was confirmed and several Fed officials clarified that there were no expectations of raising interest rates.
Precious metals rose sharply yesterday. The main force of Shanghai Bank of China rose 2.97%, reaching a maximum of 5722 yuan / kg, a two-month high, while the main force of Shanghai Gold rose 1.39% to reach a maximum of 381.22 yuan / g, the highest since February 23.
On Friday, after the US non-farm payrolls report was released in April, COMEX gold contracts rose sharply, hitting a three-month high of $1844.6 / oz in intraday trading.
Recently, commodity prices have returned to a rapid upward trend, triggering a rise in inflation expectations, boosting inflation-resistant precious metals, especially silver, which is more industrial. At the same time, US bond yields are stagnant, coupled with improved risk appetite in global markets and a fall in the dollar index, providing support for precious metals.
"as a result of the recent rapid upward trend in commodities, which triggered a rise in inflation expectations, precious metals as safe havens were boosted, and expectations of superimposed industrial demand rose, and Shanghai Bank rose sharply in a commodity rally." Guotai Junan futures analyst Ji Xianfei said.
According to Zhang Tianyi, a futures analyst at Hongye, the logic of the recent strengthening of precious metals is mainly affected by inflation expectations. Although U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that because of massive fiscal spending, it may be necessary to raise interest rates at some point in the future to prevent any economic overheating, several Fed officials said this week that inflation is completely under control. will not change the Fed's monetary policy stance. Under such circumstances, the market began to have stronger expectations for future inflation. Although Shanghai silver and Shanghai gold are also affected by financial attributes, the commodity attributes of Shanghai silver are more, so in the context of the rapid economic recovery of the United States, Shanghai silver shows greater flexibility than Shanghai gold.
For the recent rally, Huatai Futures believes that the recent strengthening of oil prices also gives positive feedback to precious metal prices from the perspective of inflation. Moreover, due to the strong overall trend of industrial products, the price of silver shows a stronger trend because of its stronger commodity attribute than gold, and the price ratio of gold and silver continues to fall.
LME copper prices hit an all-time high
Recently, the macro atmosphere has continued to improve, commodity prices have returned to a rapid upward trend, market optimism has spread, and metal varieties have become red in a large area.
According to the Merrill Lynch clock theory, commodities will show strong performance in the stage of economic recovery, and this year, China's metal futures, especially the non-ferrous plate, have perfectly demonstrated the power of the cycle. The non-ferrous metal plate showed a strong rise during the year, showing the characteristics of the strong. " Zhang Tianyi said.
Futures Daily reporter observed that copper prices rose sharply this week, LME copper prices hit an all-time high. Shanghai Copper strengthened all the way yesterday, with the main contract up 2.63%, reaching a maximum of 74950 yuan / ton, once again refreshing a new stage high. Recently, the macro atmosphere is still warm, the sharp rise in US stocks makes the market atmosphere remain optimistic, copper prices continue to strengthen.
LME copper prices rose to an all-time high on Friday after the US April non-farm payrolls report, hitting an intraday high of $10440 a tonne.
In this regard, Ji Xianfei believes that the Federal Reserve firmly reiterated its dovish position, macro sentiment continues to heat up, the metal plate rose sharply. Copper and aluminum are worried about tightening supply, and their basic support in the face of prices is significantly stronger than that of other metals.
"the strong rise in Shanghai copper is driven by both macro and fundamentals." Ji Xianfei said that on the one hand, the macro continued marginal improvement. The economic growth of the United States has accelerated. The initial annualized rate of GDP in the first quarter was 6.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.3%. Private consumption and government spending increased significantly. At the same time, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States in April is still at a relatively high level in history. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand caused by supply chain bottlenecks, processing enterprises will be in a state of catch-up in the later quarters. Fed Powell said the recovery was uneven and would maintain loose policy, raising risk sentiment in the market. China's manufacturing sector continues to expand, with a manufacturing PMI of 51.1 in April. With the increase in global logistics efficiency and demand in Europe and the United States, China's manufacturing industry will continue to expand.
On the other hand, the refinery has entered a period of centralized maintenance and gradual recovery on the demand side, resulting in a mismatch between supply and demand, the continuous elimination of social inventory, and positive fundamentals. Among them, short-term consumption is suppressed by high copper prices, but with the recovery of terminal consumption in the later stage, processing companies will be forced to accept high copper prices.
In the non-ferrous metal plate, in addition to copper, aluminum also rose more than expected, has been close to 20000 yuan / ton mark, especially Lun aluminum has a strong trend, there is basically no pullback performance.
"there are two main reasons for the rise in aluminum prices: first, global aluminum demand is active and aluminum inventories continue to decline. Since March, domestic aluminum inventories have basically declined week by week, and inventory factors support aluminum prices. Second, the domestic and global downstream industries have a strong recovery, domestic and international infrastructure can be expected in the future, and the strong performance of the automotive industry has also formed a clear support for aluminum prices. " Zhang Tianyi said.
Recent tensions between China and Australia have raised concerns about a possible decline in imports of bauxite and alumina. On the domestic supply side, Jinrui Futures said that the supply-side Inner Mongolia production reduction in the second quarter is likely to continue, but in the absence of further interference, new and resumption of production will make the supply show an upward trend again.
"driven by macro optimism and positive fundamental expectations, bulls increased their positions to enter the market, stimulating copper, aluminum and other metal futures to break through the pressure level and continue to rise. However, the physical supply and demand of zinc and lead does not constitute a major positive for prices, this round of the market is more dominated by investor optimism, and there is still a risk of price correction after the market returns to calm. " Ji Xianfei said.
"for metals with strong fundamentals such as copper and aluminum, price increases are sustainable to a certain extent, while zinc and lead are vice versa." In Ji Xianfei's view, the current copper and aluminum prices are at a stage high, the upstream supply is temporarily unable to match the demand of the peak season of consumption. Under the expectation that the terminal industries such as infrastructure and real estate continue to open, it is possible to adjust the acceptance of high prices downstream, and the gap between supply and demand will still provide some support to metal prices. "if the release of terminal demand is not as expected, downstream only rigid demand replenishment, the acceptance of high raw material prices is low, copper, aluminum prices under pressure callback risk worthy of attention. For zinc and lead, when market sentiment returns to calm, metal prices are more likely to fall into the normal valuation range. "
As for the changes in the late trend of the non-ferrous metals market, Zhang Tianyi believes that the current market sentiment is still high, but the feeling of touching the top begins to rise, and it is expected that the rapid rising market will not be sustainable for a long time, and may enter a new round of oscillating market after approaching the pressure level above. "in the medium to long term, the fundamentals of non-ferrous metals are good, there may still be a new round of upward trend after the high oscillation, and we remain optimistic in the next three quarters. Technically, the current rising trend of non-ferrous metals is relatively intact, and it is not recommended to short non-ferrous metals in the medium term. " Zhang Tianyi said.
