14:00 on January 10, 2021, an explosion occurred at the Wucailong Gold Mine under construction in Xicheng Town, Qixia City, resulting in the trapping of 22 workers underground. On the morning of January 12, the on-site rescue headquarters held a press conference.
According to reports, at present, the accident rescue work is being carried out in a tense and orderly manner. as of 10:00 on the 12th, a total of nine professional teams and municipal fire rescue detachment have been mobilized, as well as more than 70 sets of machinery and equipment of all kinds. Drilling rigs, drill pipes and other large-scale rescue equipment have been installed and operated, and the drill pipe of the wellbore has been drilled down to 396m.
After the accident, the enterprise involved did not report the situation to Qixia Emergency Management Bureau until 20:05 on January 11, and there was a problem of late reporting.
As of the afternoon of January 12, the trend of domestic commodity futures was divided. The rise and fall of the energy plate varies, with ethylene glycol and low-sulfur fuel oil up nearly 3%, pulp and urea up more than 2%, rubber and asphalt down more than 2%, coke leading the decline, down more than 3%, and thermal coal up nearly 2%.
Has the black "short feast" started?
Recently, the performance of black varieties is different. Rebar spot showed an oscillatory downward trend. Coke spot continues to rise in the 13th round. In early January, Shanxi coking coal raised the price of coking coal, and most coal mines followed. However, the performance of black futures is consistent, as a whole began to pullback. Coke disk since Monday night there has been a wave of pullback trend, intraday lowest hit 2725 yuan / ton, Tuesday has rebounded. What is the reason for the widening divergence in the current trend?
The current spot market opened the 13th round of rally, the reality is tight, the expectation is weaker. "there are two reasons for coke disk adjustment: first, the market is worried about the second fermentation of the epidemic, and prices have fallen. Second, the finished timber market has entered the off-season, inventory has passively accumulated, price pressure has fallen, steel mill profits have dropped to a low level, production enthusiasm has weakened, and coke supply and demand is expected to be gradually relaxed. The upstream coking profit is on the high side, the high valuation is revised, and the futures fall before the spot. The current disk discount to the spot, the basis is large, the spot is strong, the disk decline is limited. " Li Pengchao, a black researcher on western futures, said.
Du Peng, a coke researcher at Zhonghui Futures, believes that the coke correction is mainly affected by the weather and epidemic situation. First, it is affected by weather factors. Recently, affected by the cold wave in the north, the weather is getting colder and colder, so it is no longer suitable for large-scale construction, and the demand for finished materials has already declined. The average daily turnover of building materials across the country last week was less than 200000 tons, compared with only 149000 tons on Monday. It is only a matter of time before the weakness of mature wood is transmitted to raw materials, and futures prices are the first to adjust. Second, it is affected by the epidemic. On the one hand, the epidemic affects the transfer and demand of finished materials, and the stock of steel mills and society increases together; on the other hand, the epidemic also affects the operation and transfer of raw materials. At present, the epidemic situation in Hebei is relatively serious, many highways have been closed, road transportation is seriously restricted, the amount of coke to storage has dropped, and the inventory of some steel mills has dropped to a critical low point, taking into account the insufficient supply of coke and environmental protection factors. Some steel mills already have plans to limit production and overhaul. As the Spring Festival is approaching, affected by the epidemic, most factories and mines encourage employees to celebrate the Spring Festival in order to avoid personnel mobility, and normal production plans will be maintained during the Spring Festival. When holiday demand decreases and supply is normal, the probability of price weakening increases.
The Futures Daily reporter learned from business people that the coke market is currently brewing the 13th round of rise, which is expected to be implemented from the 13th, with a range of 100 yuan / ton. If the rise is completed, the cumulative increase in coke will reach 800 yuan / ton. After the rise, the warehouse receipt cost of transporting coke from Shanxi to the port is more than 3000 yuan / ton.
"High prices bring high profits for coking enterprises. if this round of increase is finally implemented, the coking profit in the main producing areas of North China will be 850 RMB900 per ton (including chemical products)." Zhang Yuan, a researcher of Yide Futures Coal Coke, said that the operating rate of coking enterprises is basically at the highest level, about 83%. However, due to the elimination of more production capacity at the end of December, even if the construction is high, there is a clear gap between supply and demand of coke. It is estimated that as of last Friday, the coke gap was about 76000 tons. Although moderated from the end of December last year, it is still at a high level.
According to Zhang Yuan, the production capacity of coke enterprises will not return to the level before last year's capacity loss until March-April, while output will need to reach last year's level until June or later. It is difficult to make up the coke gap in the short term. However, due to the continuous decline in the coke inventory level of steel mills, the coke inventory of a small number of steel mills in North China has fallen back to 2mi 3-day level, and individual steel mills have limited production ahead of time for overhaul.
The reporter learned in the interview that due to the transport impact of the epidemic, the difficulty of coke delivery in steel mills may be increased again in the later stage, and steel mills that rely on motor procurement may be overhauled in advance.
Zhang Yuan believes that if the overhaul scope of steel mills is expanded in the later period, there may be a certain accumulation in the coke market, which is expected to be from the second half of this month to early March. However, due to the continued existence of the gap in the later period, the probability of a rapid decline in the price of coke is relatively small, even if the steel mills are overhauled in a short time, the falling space of coke may also be controlled at 100m / t. 200 yuan / ton. After the steel mill production resumes in March, the coke demand will be released again, and the price will rise again. Therefore, the middle line can continue to consider the arbitrage opportunity of multi-thread and empty coke, and it can be set up again within the contract price difference of 2105 yuan / ton between coke 2105 and 2109 in the long run.
From January 7 to January 12, the price of Mongolian coking coal in Shaheyi, Qian'an, rose 20 yuan / ton to 1700 yuan / ton, the spot price of Liulin main coking coal rose 20 yuan / ton to 1200 yuan / ton, and the CFR price of Australian main coking coal in Jingtang Port rose 1 US dollars / ton to 115.5 US dollars / ton.
For the future of coking coal, Li Pengchao believes that from February to March, the coal mine will have annual leave, the output will decline seasonally, the import improvement space is general, and the supply is weak. On the demand side, due to the release of new coking capacity, the demand for coking coal is gradually increasing. Supply and demand are tight, inventory is falling, and spot prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. We need to pay attention to the market situation of imported coal.
The trading mood in the oil market is cautious.
After advancing by leaps and bounds last week, the oil showed a high adjustment trend this week. Why did the grease change the wind?
In this regard, CITIC Construction Investment Futures Oil analyst Shi Lihong told reporters that in addition to the marginal negative suppression of the oil itself, the macro impact caused by the deterioration of the global epidemic is even greater.
The reporter found that since the second half of last week, the overall global epidemic situation has deteriorated, and even some parts of China with relatively strict prevention and control have seen agglomeration of infectious diseases. Countries have tightened prevention and control measures one after another, causing market concern about future demand. In this context, commodities have been generally adjusted recently, and fats and fats are no exception. In addition, the marginal negative side from the news side leads to profit-taking, which also aggravates the pace of oil adjustment.
In addition, the reporter learned that the MPOB monthly report released on Tuesday showed that Malaysian palm oil went to the warehouse less than expected at the end of December last year, mainly because imports exceeded expectations and were difficult to sustain, but still suppressed the bullish enthusiasm of the market to a certain extent. USDA's monthly supply and demand report and quarterly inventory report were released at 1: 00 a.m. on January 13th. Before the report was released, the market trading mood was cautious, and the recent improved rainfall expectations in South America also promoted the adjustment of American beans, forming a marginal bearish suppression on the oil trend.
Shi Lihong believes that although the short-term adjustment, but the upward trend of oil has changed. Judging from 1Mel's two-month trading cycle, US bean carry-over inventories are expected to fall below 150 million bushels in the new season, South American soybean production has been downgraded under the previous drought, Malaysian palm oil stocks fell to an all-time low of 1.26 million tonnes at the end of December last year, and there are expectations of further decline, with strong support under US beans and Malaysian palm oil under tight supply. Back in China, the epidemic in Northeast China and Hebei limited the recovery of soybean crushing volume and stimulated active stock preparation in the middle and lower reaches. Domestic soybean oil stocks fell below 900000 tons, and the next 2Mel is expected to continue to go to the warehouse in the next three months. Domestic palm oil is insufficient to buy ships in the first quarter, and substantial upside-down import profits still need to be repaired. In the case of tight supply and strong quotations in the producing areas, there is limited room for oil pullback. With the release of macro-bearish sentiment caused by the epidemic, oil is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up, maintaining a pullback buying strategy, and traders can bargain.
