[SMM Analysis] the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments continues to rise and the price of lithium cobalt is expected to fall after a small rise in the next 2-3 months.

SMM12, March 17: it is believed that according to data from Tongyuan, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 29.584 million units in November, down 15.1% from January to November last year. From January to November, the total domestic mobile phone market shipped 281 million units, down 21.5% from the same period last year.

Among them, 20.136 million 5G mobile phones were shipped in the domestic market in November, accounting for 68.1% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.

Since the beginning of this year, under the guidance of the policy, China has completed the target of building 550000 base stations in 2020 ahead of schedule by the end of September, and it is expected that more than 70 5G base stations will be built in the whole year. At present, China is still in the introduction period of 5G construction, and China's 5G network construction will maintain a high level of investment.

Since the second half of the year, 5G mobile phone shipments have accounted for more than 60% for six consecutive months. After September, the proportion has gradually increased. In November, China's 5G mobile phone shipments accounted for 68%, and Singles Day led to a 13% increase in shipments compared with the previous month. According to SMM research, the cycle from lithium cobalt material to battery installation is about 1-2 months, and that from lithium cobalt battery installation to mobile phone shipment is about 0.5-1 month. The increase in mobile phone shipments in November was mainly due to consumption on November 11, with an expected increase in lithium cobalt supply from September to October.

Lithium cobalt production decreased by 6% month-on-month in November, and mobile phone shipments are expected to decrease from January to February 2021. SMM expects mobile phone shipments to decline from December to February, with 5G phones continuing to grow.

"Click to view the SMM metal industry chain database

According to SMM, the price of lithium cobalt has bottomed out since the end of July and has remained stable since September. As of December 17, the daily average price of lithium cobalt was 222000 yuan / ton, rebounding 14.73% from the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

"Click to view the spot historical price of SMM cobalt lithium

SMM believes that the recent price of raw material cobalt tetroxide is strong, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is rising, but the overall consumption in the next 3 months is off-season, cost support, Spring Festival stock impact, the next 2-3 months lithium cobalt material prices are expected to rise slightly and then fall.