SMM11: the outer disk metal market was red on Friday, with (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange hitting a seven-and-a-half-year high on Friday as speculators and industrial users poured into the metal market as they prepared for the COVID-19 vaccine to boost economic recovery. Most of the LME metal markets were red this morning. By around 09:40 in the morning, Lun Copper rose nearly 1.1%, Lun Zinc rose nearly 0.7%, Lun lead rose nearly 0.6%, Lun Aluminum rose nearly 0.3%, Lun Nickel rose nearly 0.2%, Lunxi was flat. Domestically, international copper rose nearly 2.4%, Shanghai Copper rose nearly 2.3%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 1.8%, Shanghai lead rose nearly 3.4%, and Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 3%. Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.8%, and Shanghai tin rose nearly 1%. The dollar index fell slightly in the morning, hitting a nearly three-month low on Friday as traders bought commodity-related currencies, the Norwegian krone led a rise in Gmur10, the euro rose to its highest level since early September and sterling lost.
In terms of copper, the international copper 2103 contract opened at 50000 yuan per ton last Friday and was shaken at a high level after opening. It touched a high of 50220 yuan / ton on the short-term in intraday trading, and then returned to the vicinity of the 50000 gate, and finally closed at 50070 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.16%. On Friday night, due to optimistic expectations such as vaccine progress, the US index closed negative to 91.8, and gold dived 30 US dollars under the Brin middle track, indicating that risk aversion was further weakened. Copper prices are expected to continue to rise today, international copper 2103 operating at 49900 yuan / ton-50300 yuan / ton.
[SMM International Copper BC Morning News] risk aversion is expected to fall back and copper prices are expected to continue to rise.
In terms of aluminum, the risk aversion sentiment in the market has obviously eased recently, gold and silver have fallen sharply, and the trend of outer disk metal has been strong. Lunal has recently recorded new highs in the context of the decline of the US index and the pick-up of overseas demand, paying attention to the impact of macro data such as the follow-up market trading atmosphere and the dollar index. In terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the continued decline in low inventories and consumption stability give bulls strong confidence in the fundamentals. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue its strong trend, so we need to continue to pay attention to the impact of marginal changes in inventory on market sentiment. It is expected that the short-term spot tension will be maintained, and the futures aluminum price will be on the strong side before the year.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] up to now, the inventory has exceeded 1 million tons. It is expected that the aluminum price will be too volatile by the end of this year.
In terms of lead, lead closed on Friday, closing at four consecutive positive posts, and the weakening US dollar still supports the trend of base metals. Last Friday, Shanghai lead followed the rising pace of Lun lead upward, in the outer disk strength, domestic spot market consumption uncertainty, Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely this week. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 275-325 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Macro-sentiment boosted lead prices during the internal and external trading period and the social inventory of lead ingots increased for five consecutive years.
Zinc, last Friday Lun zinc recorded four Lianyang, the lower 5 / 10 line to provide support, the upper Bollinger Road on the rail to form a compression, KDJ opening expansion. Last Friday, LME inventories fell by 550t to 221325 tonnes, a drop of 0.25%. The weakness of the US dollar boosted the rise of non-ferrous metals, while Lun Zinc also showed a strong performance, and then brushed a new high. The positive news of the vaccine has been fuelled by growing optimism that the US economy will recover quickly under the impetus of vaccination and a smooth transition in the White House, which has contributed to the strength of Ren Zinc. Focus on geopolitical risks in the short term. Last Friday, Shanghai Zinc recorded three Lianyang, the daily k center of gravity moved upward, the upper Bollinger Road was pressed on the track, the lower averages were arranged in multiple positions, and the MACD positive column expanded. Macroscopically, the domestic economic recovery is good, domestic and foreign TC continues to decline in fundamentals, and the logical support of tight supply at the mine end still exists, superimposed with a small reduction in domestic inventories, supporting the upward trend of zinc in Shanghai, refreshing the high level of more than a year and a half.
[summary of SMM Morning meeting] under the logic of tight supply, Shanghai zinc refreshes its high level in more than a year and a half.
In terms of nickel, macroscopically, although the employment data in foreign countries affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic are not good, the capital markets have great confidence in the long term, coupled with the fact that vaccines are constantly coming from the market, all major metals have been boosted, and nickel prices have also been driven up. In terms of fundamentals, the weak performance of 300 series stainless steel in the early stage continued to affect the price of nickel industry chain products, but market sentiment temporarily stabilized after the production reduction plans of Synchronize in both stainless steel plants and nickel pig iron plants. On the other hand, when the consumption of electrolytic nickel market is stable and the import performance is not good, the domestic inventory falls to the annual low, which tends to be more profitable. As the long-short offset weakens the basic impact of nickel prices, the recent trend of the nickel market will be more vulnerable to loose macro sentiment: this week, Shanghai nickel is expected to be 119500-125000 yuan / ton, Lunni 16000-16650 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel price is boosted by macroscopical boost. High spot buyers are afraid of heights and wait and see.
On the tin side, the dollar continued to decline last week, boosting base metals, including Lunxi, and the recent improvement in market risk appetite is mainly due to the good progress of a number of novel coronavirus vaccines and the prospects for global economic recovery. Parts of Europe are scheduled to be unsealed before Christmas as local governments try to strike a balance between economic recovery and bringing the epidemic under control. Both the European Union and the Federal Reserve are discussing the timing and scale of a new round of economic stimulus. On the data side, recent LME tin inventories continue to decline, coupled with the bearish expectations of the dollar will continue to support the trend of Lunxi.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the weakness of the US dollar supports the trend of Lunxi and the domestic spot discount is strong.
In terms of the black system, the thread fell nearly 0.2%, the hot coil rose nearly 0.5%, the coking coal rose nearly 0.9%, the coke rose nearly 0.7%, the iron ore rose nearly 0.6%, and the stainless steel rose nearly 0.2%. Last week, the current prices of hot rolls both pulled up, and the overall upward trend is comparable. Last week, under the support of strong expectations of relevant national stimulus policies and outstanding demand from terminal manufacturing industries such as containers, cars and home appliances, the overall market attitude of plates was optimistic. The unloading of superimposed hot rolls continued to be considerable, prompting the relatively strong performance of the futures market this week, with both futures prices rising and working hand in hand to hit new highs again. In the later stage, the output of steel mills on the supply side may decline at a high level. On the demand side, downstream manufacturing demand remains high. The fundamentals of some areas have been gradually improved, the recent destocking of the plate is considerable, and the merchants are more willing to raise prices, so it is expected that the short-term spot prices will be mainly strong shocks.
"[minutes of the morning meeting within SMM] the status of the varieties changed, and the thread became the weakest variety.
Crude oil rose nearly 0.3% in the previous period, while U.S. oil fell on Friday, but rose for the fourth week in a row ahead of the OPEC meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) and its allies. Despite the rise in oil prices, the (OPEC) of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries and its allies, including Russia, are still inclined to postpone plans to increase oil production next year to prop up the market during the second wave of the novel coronavirus epidemic and rising production in Libya, according to three people close to OPEC.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 2%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 3.8%. Comex gold futures fell on Friday, falling below the key support level of $1800 and recording the biggest weekly decline since the end of September. Growing optimism that the US economy will recover quickly driven by vaccination and a smooth transition at the White House has pushed the US stock market to an all-time high.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
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