SMM11 March 20: metals on the outer disk rose and fell each other yesterday. (LME) copper on the London Metal Exchange closed nearly flat on Thursday, falling from the highs reached earlier this week, as funds closed long profits, the dollar rose, and market sentiment turned negative, for fear of a surge in novel coronavirus cases and stricter blockade measures, which could hit economic growth and demand. In early trading today, the LME metal market rose nearly 0.2%, Lun Copper and Lun Ni rose nearly 0.1%, Lun Zinc fell nearly 0.1%, and Lunxi fell nearly 0.7%. Domestically, Shanghai lead rose nearly 2.1%, Shanghai Zinc rose nearly 1.5%, Shanghai Copper and Shanghai Nickel rose nearly 0.5%, Shanghai Aluminum rose nearly 0.1%, and Shanghai Tin fell nearly 1.5%.
With regard to copper, data released by the US Department of Labor at night showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rebounded to 742000 in the week to November 14, dragged down by the continued deterioration of the epidemic, the number of initial jobless claims rebounded again, the pace of recovery of the job market showed signs of slowing, and investor caution continued to increase, limiting the room for copper futures to rise to a certain extent. It is also reported that Republican leaders in the US Senate have agreed to resume negotiations with Democrats on a potential new round of anti-epidemic stimulus bill, the US index fell sharply at the end of the day, and copper futures were boosted to rise.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Copper's nocturnal rally momentum is limited during the return of the stimulus bill to negotiations.
In terms of aluminum, the recent market sentiment has been constantly switching between the good vaccine and the worsening epidemic, and the trading atmosphere is complex and changeable. In the context of the decline in the US index and the pick-up in overseas demand, Lunal has recently recorded new highs, paying attention to the impact of follow-up market trading atmosphere and macro data such as the dollar index. In terms of Shanghai Aluminum, the continued decline in low inventories and consumer stability give bulls strong confidence in the fundamentals, combined with 2012 contract positions and fundamentals in that month, Shanghai Aluminum may maintain a strong shock trend in the medium term.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] stocks of aluminum ingots and bars are all down and follow-up delivery is concerned.
In terms of lead, Lun lead rose strongly to close eight Lianyang, the dollar index fell, and the general upward trend of metals continued. Overnight, Shanghai lead followed Lun lead to stop falling and closing higher, breaking through the 14650 five-day moving average, which is paid attention to during the day, and we still need to pay attention to the pressure of cautious sentiment on lead prices downstream of the domestic spot market. The price of lead in SMM1# is expected to rise by 250-300 yuan per ton today.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] it is difficult for Lun lead to stabilize the high level of lead in Balian, Yang and Shanghai and to return to work.
In terms of zinc, overnight dollar weakness provides support for zinc prices, macro vaccine good news still surrounds the market, the total number of new housing starts in the United States is higher than expected, superimposed by the expectations of the European Central Bank's fiscal stimulus, and the mining story in South Africa continues to boost market sentiment, but the epidemic continues and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States last week is higher than expected, which is expected to depress the upward space for zinc prices. Shanghai zinc recorded six Lianyang overnight, the upper break through Brin Road on the track to suppress, the lower averages into a multi-headed arrangement. Overnight outer disk strong drive, Shanghai zinc also showed a strong performance, once again refresh a new high. Fundamentals, the TC low mine end supply is still tight, superimposed some smelters have production reduction plans, the supply side tight logic to support the upward zinc price.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] tight logic on the supply side boosted buying sentiment and hit new highs in Shanghai zinc overnight.
In terms of nickel, in terms of fundamentals, 300 series stainless steel shows a weak impact on the price of nickel industry chain products, and the weak atmosphere may continue. At present, there are no signs of production reduction in stainless steel plants, but we need to pay close attention to this trend. Nickel prices may be dragged down. It is estimated that this week, Shanghai nickel is 116000-121000 yuan / ton, Lunni is 15400-16100 US dollars / ton.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] Nickel spot rising water holding volume is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the week. The price of nickel pig iron is still likely to continue to fall.
In terms of black, thread rose by nearly 0.6%, hot coil by nearly 0.2%, coking coal by nearly 0.7%, coke by nearly 0.2%, and iron ore by nearly 0.1%. In terms of hot rolls, the total inventory of hot rolled coils this week was 3.4485 million tons, compared with-109800 tons last week and-3.08% compared with the previous week. + 32.93% year-on-year. Total hot rolling inventory continued to decline this week, but due to the increase in steel mill overhaul and resumption of production, a slight increase in production led to a slight slowdown in the decline in total inventory. Overall, on the one hand, under the support of stable supply and high demand, the fundamentals are still strong, but when the early spot price has basically reflected its fundamental advantages, it may be difficult to support its price to continue to rise sharply in the future. On the other hand, subject to seasonal factors, the resource firepower of northern steel mills has gradually shifted to the East and South China market.
[minutes of SMM Morning meeting] the fundamentals of price overdraft are positive, and there is limited room for black to rebound.
The previous period of crude oil rose nearly 0.8%, while US crude oil futures fell slightly on Thursday, recording the first decline in four trading days, as novel coronavirus cases in the United States and around the world continued to rise, and concerns about crude oil demand outweighed the good news on vaccines. Concerns about unity within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries ((OPEC)) have also weighed on oil prices, analysts said. The new blockade imposed in response to the increasing number of novel coronavirus cases has put pressure on the market.
In terms of precious metals, Shanghai gold fell nearly 0.2%, while Shanghai silver fell nearly 0.7%. Comex gold futures closed lower on Thursday, falling for the third day in a row, as the dollar rose slightly and novel coronavirus made progress in vaccine research and development, boosting hopes of a faster economic rebound and lowering bets on an immediate coronavirus rescue plan in the United States. Analysts point out that gold is under pressure from a stronger dollar and uncertainty about future stimulus packages. While more stimulus measures are expected, some choose to take profits before things become clearer.
As of 09:30, the status of contracts in the metals and crude oil markets:
