[July 31 SMM lead internal morning meeting record] reduction lead market supply continues to be tight downstream market transaction improvement is limited

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

Us consumer spending and prices rose modestly in June, suggesting slowing economic growth and moderate inflation could prompt the Fed to cut interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in a decade, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. consumer spending rose at the slowest pace in four months. Consumer spending rose 0.3% in June as higher spending on services and other goods offset a decline in car purchases, with the core PCE rising 0.2% last month, the third consecutive month of gains.

The political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze and study the current economic situation and make arrangements for economic work in the second half of the year. The meeting demanded that we should implement a positive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and that monetary policy should be tight and moderate, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, implement a long-term real estate management mechanism, and refrain from using real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulus. We will stabilize investment in the manufacturing industry and speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as information networks.

Fundamentals:

The high level of lead in Shanghai period fell, coupled with the narrowing of recycled refined lead discount, the discount quoted by the holder is also narrowed slightly. Among them, the price of Jinsha lead in Shanghai market is 20 to 50 yuan / ton for 1908 contract, and 40 to 20 yuan / ton for Jijin, Wanyang, Yuguang and Minshan lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas. at the same time, the average price of electrolytic lead refinery is 100 to 50 yuan / ton for SMM1# electrolytic lead. In terms of recycled lead, the market supply of reduced lead is still tight, and the transaction price of reduced lead is almost the same everywhere. The mainstream transaction price of recycled lead with tax is 150 to 250 yuan / ton of SMM1# lead. The downstream basically maintains on-demand procurement, and the transaction of bulk order market is limited.

Lead price:

The logic of the current round of speculation is in inventory, when the inventory logic is falsified, the decline is also normal; Shanghai lead in recent days the trend is stronger than the external market, the internal and external price gradually repaired, the internal and external anti-position gradually reflected;

The price of SMM1# lead is expected to fall by 100 to 150 yuan per ton today.