Current Review (17 July)
< 1 > spot aspect.
Today's steel market prices are generally stable. Trading volume: general. The price of billet in Tangshan area is stable to 3650 yuan / ton.
Market mentality: stability.
Phase II steel.
RB1910 main contract:
During the day, the high frequency increased or decreased the warehouse and the tail increased to 14670, and the wide range fluctuated strongly between 4009 and 4068 during the day, and the final closing was 4052. The main organization has a net increase of 10438 hands per day.
HC1910 main contract:
During the day, there was a substantial reduction in positions and tail positions to 19728 hands, with a wide range of strong fluctuations between 3874 and 3934 during the day and a close of 3917. The main organization within the day clearance single 5840 hands.
Iron ore l1909 main contract:
During the day, there was a sharp reduction in positions and tail positions to 24400 hands, with a wide range of strong oscillations between 880 and 907.5 during the day, and a final closing of 899.5. The main organization has a net increase of 20079 hands per day.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract:
During the day, a huge increase in positions, tail positions to 42926, within the day between 2168 and 2218 continued to rebound, closing 2209.5. The main organization has a net increase of 1337 hands per day.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract:
During the day, a small increase in positions, tail positions to 5996 hands, within the day between 1400 and 1424 shock upward, closing 1420.5. The main organization within the day clearance single 2663 hands.
Forecast for tomorrow.
1. Spot aspect: the probability of becoming stronger in stability is large.
two。 Futures:
RB1910 main contract: between 4020 and 4100 concussion.
HC1910 main contract: between 3890 and 3970 concussion.
Iron ore l1909 main contract: between 875 and 910 concussion.
Demon Jiao J1909 main contract: between 2150 and 2250 concussion.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract: between 1390 and 1430 concussion.
< 4 > suggestions for current operation:
1. Spot: unchanged.
Note: smooth rolling operation, if continue a large rebound, continue to appropriate amount of inventory reduction is appropriate.
two。 Futures: unchanged.
The main contract of RB1910/HC1910 at the end of the finished material: it is appropriate to have more rolling operation in the interval.
Iron ore l1909 main contract: wait-and-see or interval light position short operation: every along the value near the multiple intervention, the upper edge of the value near the empty single intervention is appropriate. More and more empty fast-in and fast-out.
Coke J1909 main contract: high throwing and low absorption in the interval.
Coking coal JM1909 main contract: wait and see or every interval along the value near the empty single intervention.
< 5 > Heart language and information.
1. Focus on tonight, tomorrow afternoon inventory data sunrise on the current disturbance. The data are not bad, according to estimates.
two。 Iron ore.
Two pieces of information:
A big business to adjust iron ore delivery standard information, followed by another big business secret rumour information. Although it is not possible to determine whether the two are true or false, but the author believes that there is no wind and waves, high bulls take care of the point.
According to SMM Color Network:
7.7 on July 13, a total of 15 ships arrived at China's major ports, with an estimated arrival volume of 17.52 million tons, an increase of 3.68 million tons over the previous period. The number of ships arriving at Qingdao, Rizhao, Tianjin and Jingtang ports increased significantly. During the period, exports from Australia are expected to increase by 2.14 million tons to 14.18 million tons, while those from Brazil are expected to decrease by 380000 tons to 5.69 million tons. The number of visits to Hong Kong has risen for two weeks in a row, and non-mainstream mines have also accelerated their return.
[iron ore from Port Hedland increased 6 per cent in June], of which 42.03 million tons were exported to mainland China, up 4.2 million tons, or 11 per cent, from 37.83 million tons in May.
The author forward-looking prediction: iron ore fundamentals (high demand failure, slow return of supply) has been less than the previous period, the above data can be corroborated.
At present, the market of Chi Wu is consistent with the author's understanding, and the static focus is that there are differences in the contradiction of mine discount.
From a static point of view alone, this contradiction seems to be incessant and disorderly. I do not know, since the fundamentals are not as good as the previous period, is the price now higher and reasonable than the previous period? Logically tenable? Can you still live longer?
Is the spot price to look back, or continue to be wayward crazy, which logic is more sufficient?! The benevolent see the benevolent, the wise see the wise. In short, the author still firmly believes that the will of the state should not allow a number of well-known compradors to desecrate the dimension!
What is the business of the great leader Xi Jinping to the Resources Department of Inner Mongolia?
If the policy combination punches the iron ore diamond price, it does not meet the expected target. The author tends to think that the environmental protection and actual hammer landing of Jiangsu Province, the second largest steel producer, can not be ruled out.
3. Coke.
Environmental protection and production restrictions have become increasingly strict, the elimination of 4.3 meters of coke ovens is on the line, Shandong Province is likely to land at the end of the month.
As for Jiao, the author still maintains: every low cloth more, chase high do not want, short rhythm after all, the disk surface high rising water. Coking coal JM1909 main contract, demand convergence, every high can be the right amount of empty.
4. Scrap steel prices are high, iron ore diamond prices, superimposed coke rebound on the road, steel mill costs how can! In the foreseeable third quarter, there is no Qiang in the macro-economy for the time being. How much room can we expect steel prices to fall?! In short, the author or which sentence, late to replenish inventory, although late is still late.
With yesterday's heart words and information.
1. NDRC transmission: resolutely prevent the steel and coal sector has withdrawn from production capacity resurgence.
two。 The ten-day price of Sangang continues to be stable, and the prices of most steel mills have been raised today.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: in June 2019, China's steel bar output was 22.693 million tons, an increase of 29.4 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to June was 118.764 million tons, an increase of 19.3 percent over the same period last year.
4. From July 18, 2019 (July 17 night trading section) to adjust and increase the iron ore futures trading fees.
5. The production of coke enterprises in Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province is limited to 50%.
The first round of coke price increase is expanded. But Jiao Shengshui spot nearly 100, the disk has reflected the first round of price expectations. It is necessary to be cautious in chasing high, and it is the best policy to pay more when it is low.
6. Iron ore:
Last week, Australia and Brazil shipped a total of 21.75 million tons, an increase of 1.99 million tons over the previous week. Qingdao Port 62% powder ore price 905 yuan / ton, discount 78.
The author's point of view remains unchanged: the high demand is not as good as the early stage, and the most tense state of the supply stage is no longer as good as the previous stage; does the will of the state allow a number of "public compradors" to desecrate the long dimensions? The fact that prices have hit record highs is entirely a matter of capital manipulation.
Operation advice: wait and see or have the ability to test empty high, fast-in and fast-out is appropriate.
7. At the end of the material side.
Tangshan environmental protection thunderstorm counterparts are no doubt, as for some steel enterprises from time to time stop time limit, local problems difficult to regret the overall situation, but short "night road whistle" only, do not worry about gains and losses.
8. Dim sum: Trump tweeted nonsense, China's Ministry of Commerce responded. The author's words: as the president of the empire, the long dimension nonsense, how can it be unified! Let's just say strategic anxiety syndrome is a lot of trouble!
Great China: not afraid of floating clouds cover my eyes, because I am at the top of the mountain!
With yesterday's heart words and information.
1. Heavy macroeconomic data sunrise.
National Bureau of Statistics:
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 6.3% in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year. China's GDP peer in the second quarter was 6.2 per cent, with an forecast of 6.3 per cent, compared with a previous value of 6.4 per cent.
China's crude steel production rose 10 per cent in June to 87.53 million tons.
China's crude steel production rose 9.9 per cent from January to June to 492.17 million tons.
China's steel production rose 12.6 per cent in June to 107.1 million tons.
China's steel production rose 11.4 per cent from January to June to 586.9 million tons.
China's fixed assets investment totaled 29.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 percent from January to June compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.2 percent over January and May.
In January and June, investment in real estate development nationwide increased by 10.9 percent over the same period last year, and the area newly started increased by 10.1 percent, down 0.4 percent from January to May.
In January and June, real estate development enterprises purchased an area of 80.35 million square meters, down 27.5 percent from the same period last year, down 5.7 percent from January to May.
Attached to the black interpretation: more optimistic than the market expectations, especially the new construction area growth rate of 10.1%, down only 0.4%. Neutral preference.
two。 Jiangsu Province Transmission:
[Jiangsu Province launched the "rivers and blue sky" blue sky defense operation, the time span is about 2 months.
Interpretation: affect the delivery speed of steel mills and increase costs, good for traders in Shanghai and Hangzhou in East China.
3. Coke: by Shanxi, Shandong part of the environmental protection production restrictions on the ground, coke although more looking forward to, but not recommended to catch up.
4. Iron ore:
Qingdao Port 62%PB powder mine tail plate rose to 895 yuan / ton, but the steel mill inquiry enthusiasm is poor. Stage mine discount 77. The author still maintains the point of view of weekly evaluation, although the fundamentals do not have Qiang, but not as objective as the previous period. The problem is that "comprador funds" still manipulate the disk, short-term recommendations wait-and-see or high light cloth short is appropriate.
5. The rainy season in July has a greater impact, doomed to rebound is overgrown with thorns: the spot is not afraid of eternal difficulties, thousands of mountains and rivers are only leisurely. The author tends to be smoother in August.
The rhythm, trend analysis and viewpoint remain unchanged. See the weekly reviews on June 1 and July 13 for details.
Details consultant Lu Qingping 021 51595781
(statement: this article is made and published exclusively by SMM Steel under the exclusive license of the author, and may not be reproduced without authorization)
