[July 15 SMM lead internal morning meeting record]

Summary of the lead morning meeting:

Macro:

It is reported that US-China relations appear to be showing signs of tension. The US president said that China devalued the renminbi and subsidised enterprises to reduce the impact of the 25% tariff, and that China would not purchase large quantities of US agricultural products until concrete progress was made in the economic and trade negotiations. China also warned that US arms sales to Taiwan are "playing with fire" and will impose sanctions on US enterprises involved in arms sales to Taiwan.

The producer price index, which deducts food and energy, rose 2.3% in June from a year earlier, exceeding the median forecast of 2.1%.

China's credit and social finance data rebounded in June compared with the previous month, M2 growth rate was steady, M1 growth rate picked up, and the cash demand of residents and enterprises increased. Among them, the new social financing of 2.26 trillion yuan was much higher than expected, the highest in three months. Relevant analysts believe that it is mainly supported by local special bonds, etc., but with the slowdown in local bond issuance in July and considering the impact of last year's base, it is expected to be difficult to maintain.

As a result of the Sino-US trade war and the global economic slowdown, China's dollar-denominated exports fell 1.3 per cent in June from a year earlier, imports fell 7.3 per cent, shrinking more than expected, with imports from the US falling 31.4 per cent from a year earlier, with a trade surplus of $50.98 billion.

With 188.5 billion yuan of MLF due on Monday, the central bank is likely to replenish medium-and long-term liquidity.

Fundamentals:

Last week, the spot lead price fell to below 10,000, some storage enterprises began to replenish the warehouse at a low price, but due to the continued downturn in terminal consumption, this part of the procurement was dominated by rigid demand, and after the market fluctuations intensified, the panic of the storage enterprises began to wait and see carefully, and the market trading turned light. In terms of primary lead, last week, when the spot lead fell to the bottom of 10,000, the refinery began to push the price out, and then as the price was repaired, the refinery began to adjust the shipping of Shengtianshui. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation for SMM1# lead price was 50 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton. The trade market quotation was accompanied by the market. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation of domestic lead ordinary brand for 1908 contract flat water to 50 yuan / ton; In terms of recycled lead, as the price of waste batteries continued to fall, some losses in recycled lead refineries were made up for, and the reclaimed refined lead paste narrowed slightly. As of Friday, the mainstream quotation for recycled refined lead had put an average price of 100yuan / ton of SMM1# lead out of the factory.

In addition, last week, the total social inventory of lead ingots in the five places rose by more than 2200 tons to 37800 tons.

Lead price:

Lun lead closed at 5 Lianyang, and market sentiment went into the expectation of a unilateral rally, testing the pressure level of US $2000 in the short term. Shanghai lead, driven by London lead, reported the positive line for four consecutive days, but it is not difficult to find that the actual increase is limited. In the short term, we still need to be careful that Shanghai lead weakens abroad and takes the lead in falling back.

SMM1# lead prices are expected to be flat today.