SMM Morning Comments (Apr 4)

SHANGHAI, Apr 4 (SMM) –

Copper: The US dollar index climbed up and depressed copper prices following a release by the US of  $50 billion of imports from China that could be subject to sweeping tariffs. LME copper moved around the daily moving averages and hit the 20-day moving average, while its SHFE counterpart performed similarly with a narrower trading range. SMM remains bullish on copper prices but sees strong pressure. Prices are likely to stay rangebound in short term. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,720-6,780/mt today, with SHFE copper at 50,200-50,700 yuan/mt. In the physical market, spot premiums are seen at 0-50 yuan/mt today given that traders offered lower yesterday afternoon as trades were thin.

Aluminium: LME aluminium lost its position of $2,000/mt after seven consecutive days of decline. It is likely to extend its downward trend in light of US-Sino trade tension. We expect it to trade between $1,975-2,000/mt today. The announcement from the US of possible retaliatory measures on imported goods from China does not augur well for commodities. Today, SHFE aluminium is likely to trade between 13,930-14,100 yuan/mt, with spot discounts between 60-20 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Affected by macroeconomic developments, LME zinc fluctuated widely without strong support overnight. It hovered around $3,285/mt after hitting a low of $3,256/mt. We see it remaining rangebound at $3,250-3,290/mt today. The SHFE 1806 contract slumped below all moving averages overnight and closed low at 24,665 yuan/mt as investors added their short bets. We see it trading at 24,500-24,900 yuan/mt today with continuous pressure from shorts.

Nickel: LME nickel faced pressure from a strong US dollar and closed at $13,510/mt overnight, and the SHFE 1807 contract also edged down to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. We expect the SHFE 1807 contract to trade at 99,200-101,000 yuan/mt with spot prices at 98,500-100,300 yuan/mt today.

Tin: As the US dollar climbed above 90, LME tin fell after it inched up overnight and touched a high of the 40-day moving average. It is likely to trade rangebound with pressure in the short run. The SHFE 1805 contract edged down to close at 145,210 yuan/mt overnight. We see it trading at 144,500-146,000 yuan/mt with resistance today.

Lead: LME lead mostly traded rangebound at $2,400/mt overnight and this trend is likely to continue today. The SHFE 1805 contract received support from the 10-day moving average overnight. We see it testing support at the same level today. Investors should be cautious about a decline of long bets that could depress SHFE lead.

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