SMM Evening Comments (Feb 9)

SHANGHAI, Feb 9 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures fell across the board today with SHFE tin and nickel down 2%. While copper slid over 1%, SHFE zinc, aluminium and lead all edged down.

The performance of the ferrous complex was no different from its base metals peers. Coke dropped nearly 2% while hot-rolled coil was down 1.5%. Rebar fell 1% as coking coal and iron ore slipped.  

Copper: The SHFE 1804 copper contract fell as investors added to their short bets. However, we see limited downward room further as the price has reached a relatively low level. LME inventory would be the key thing to watch tonight.

Aluminium: Stock market falls led investors to increase their short positions in SHFE aluminium today. We expect the contract to trade rangebound next week as the Chinese New Year holiday dampens trading activity.

Nickel: The SHFE 1805 nickel broke the 20-day moving average and touched a low of 98,420 yuan/mt today. The contract also saw an outflow of funds amounting to 280 million yuan. 

Zinc: SHFE zinc today lost all its gains overnight and hit the support at the 40-day moving average. We see shorts maintain an upper hand in the short term.    

Tin: Following the downward movement across commodities futures, SHFE tin dropped significantly. If the support at 147,000 yuan/mt was to be broken, we see the next level at 144,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: We expect SHFE 1803 lead to stay rangebound tonight at the 60-day moving average level with support at 19,000 yuan/mt. 

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