Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Base Metal Prices (2017-7-24)

SHANGHAI, Jul. 24 (SMM) –Market will eye manufacturing PMI from the US and the euro zone, US home sales and meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries today.

The US dollar index fell below 94 last Friday as hawkish remarks by ECB president triggered selloffs of US dollar. The dollar will remain weak for the near term. US crude oil futures prices for September delivery fell 2.81% following news on OPEC supply.  

The euro zone’s manufacturing PMI may fall MoM to 57.2 in July. Manufacturing index in the euro zone has been rising since Aug. 2016. As said by ECB president, euro zone economy is recovering further, trade and exports improved, and personal consumption also rose. So, the euro zone’s manufacturing PMI may exceed expectations in July. 

Markit’s US manufacturing PMI has been falling for 5 months in a row, but may rally slightly in July. US economy is still facing uncertainty, due to legislation failure and issue about Trump over Russia and poor retail sales.  

Annualized US existing home sales are expected at 5.54 million units in June, down from May’s 5.64 million units. Despite strong labor market, slowing wage growth affected property market. 

The OPEC and non-OPEC countries will hold a meeting today, which will review good and bad impact from output cut limit deal reached earlier this year, which involves 1.8 million barrel cut in daily output. It is saild output cut immunity for two African oil producing countries may be cancelled. Kuwait oil minister said it is possible that oil producing countries will cut output further.  

See SMM price forecast, please click: SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 24, 2017)