SMM Price Outlook for Base Metals on SHFE (Jul. 24, 2017)

In May, copper prices surged before retracing, yet copper scrap payability coefficients remained exceptionally firm. Transactions for Millberry stabilized at a high level of 98.5%, while No. 2 copper became the market highlight, with its coefficient climbing from around 95% to 96%–97% due to the premium upside of its gold and silver by-products. Driven by stricter domestic policies and tax compliance, China demand remained robust. Conversely, tight overseas scrap supply persisted, and this structural mismatch kept import payability coefficients elevated and sticky for the short term. Under the current landscape of tight global supply and resilient demand, the traditional market logic of "surging copper prices driving down payability coefficients" has effectively become obsolete.

[SMM Copper Cathode Production] Copper cathode production in May came in at 1.1694 million mt, down 0.81% MoM and up 2.73% YoY. Cumulative production from January to May was 5.8761 million mt, up 7.66% YoY cumulatively.