【SMM Analysis】 US Solar AD/CVD Case Nears Final Ruling, Threatening 6 GW Import Channel from India, Indonesia, and Laos

The US International Trade Commission held its final-phase hearing on September 9 in the antidumping and countervailing duty investigations of crystalline-silicon photovoltaic cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos. Under the current USITC schedule, posthearing briefs are due September 16, the Commission plans to vote on October 14, and its final determination and views are scheduled for October 26.

The hearing did not impose a new tariff that day. The US Department of Commerce had already issued affirmative preliminary determinations, and cash-deposit requirements have applied to certain subject imports. The market is now waiting for the final duty rates, the USITC's injury decision, and confirmation of whether the provisional measures will become formal AD/CVD orders.

US Commerce data show that US imports of subject solar products from India, Indonesia and Laos totaled approximately 6.01 GW in 2024, up about 134% from 2.57 GW in 2023. With the US already applying AD/CVD measures to solar products from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, this rapidly expanded supply channel is now facing a further tightening of trade restrictions.

Solar-cell origin, not only module assembly, is the central issue

The investigations cover crystalline-silicon solar cells and modules assembled from those cells. Under the USITC scope notice, modules produced in a third country using cells made in India, Indonesia or Laos remain subject to the investigations. By contrast, modules made in a subject country using cells from a third country are generally outside this case. Moving module assembly alone therefore may not isolate trade risk; the origin of the solar cell becomes a central compliance test.

At the preliminary stage, India's estimated dumping margin was 123.04%, while its preliminary subsidy rate was 125.87%. Indonesia's preliminary dumping margins ranged from 35.17% to 94.36%, and its preliminary subsidy rates ranged from 85.99% to 143.30%. The dumping margin for PT Blue Sky Solar Indonesia was raised to 94.36% in a May amended preliminary determination. Laos received a preliminary dumping margin of 22.46% and a preliminary subsidy rate of 80.67%. These are not final rates, and the AD margins, adjusted cash-deposit rates and CVD rates should not be added together without the applicable adjustments.

A new 6 GW supply corridor emerged within two years

India, Indonesia and Laos were not long-standing dominant suppliers to the US solar market. According to import statistics published by US Commerce, US imports of subject merchandise from India rose from 0.23 GW in 2022 to 2.30 GW in 2024. Imports from Indonesia increased from 0.50 GW to 1.80 GW, while shipments from Laos surged from zero to 1.91 GW over the same period.

Combined imports from the three countries climbed from 0.73 GW in 2022 to 6.01 GW in 2024, or 8.2 times the 2022 level. India, Indonesia and Laos accounted for approximately 38%, 30% and 32%, respectively, of that three-country total in 2024, forming a relatively balanced supply structure. The Commerce statistics cover subject crystalline-silicon cells and modules containing those cells; import volume should not be equated with annual US solar installations.

The increase coincided with an expansion of US solar trade barriers. As investigations and orders covering Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam advanced, new orders, investment and solar-cell demand began looking for additional manufacturing locations in Asia. India, Indonesia and Laos consequently became significant additions to the US import mix.

The import surge alone, however, does not prove circumvention. Company ownership, material sourcing, actual manufacturing steps and origin documentation must be assessed case by case. The broader trend is more important: US trade remedies are following shifts in the supply chain, with scrutiny moving beyond the final module assembly location toward solar-cell manufacturing.

Orders may be redirected, splitting price effects by region

If affirmative final determinations are issued and duty rates remain high, existing US-bound orders from India, Indonesia and Laos may need to be repriced. Relevant production lines could face delayed orders, supplier replacement by customers and lower operating rates. Some products may be redirected to Europe, the Middle East and other Asian markets rather than immediately leaving global supply.

For US importers and module manufacturers, the adjustment could shift from changing module assembly locations to reconfiguring cell procurement. Because third-country modules made with subject-country cells may remain dutiable, buyers will need stronger batch-level traceability across wafers, cells and modules, as well as a clear understanding of each supplier's company-specific rate. Cells from non-subject markets could receive additional enquiries, although available capacity, certification and delivery schedules may limit how quickly they can fill the gap.

The price effect is therefore likely to differ by region. Fewer compliant supply options in the US could add compliance costs and policy-risk premiums to cell and module quotations. At the same time, products originally intended for the US could add near-term supply pressure in non-US markets. The case may not lift global solar-cell prices in parallel; a more plausible outcome is higher supply costs in the US alongside stronger competition elsewhere.

For manufacturers operating across Asia, the room to manage trade exposure by moving only module assembly is narrowing. A US-oriented manufacturing plan increasingly needs to coordinate cell origin, customer qualification, company-specific duty rates and supporting traceability documents.

Three scenarios will shape the post-ruling market

In the short term, preliminary cash-deposit requirements have already constrained trade, so the September hearing does not represent a fresh, immediate tariff shock. Ahead of the October vote, importers are more likely to remain cautious, renegotiate orders and diversify sourcing. Shipment trends from the three countries and the ability of non-US markets to absorb redirected supply will be important indicators for the solar-cell balance.

If the USITC reaches an affirmative injury determination and final duty rates remain high, direct supply from the three countries will come under greater pressure. If company-specific rates diverge materially, exporters receiving lower rates may retain access to the US market and gain share from higher-rate suppliers. If the USITC reaches a negative determination, the related measures may be terminated, subject to the formal decision and subsequent customs instructions.

As of September 11, 2026, the USITC case remained pending. The next key variables are Commerce's formally published final rates, the USITC vote on October 14, the ramp-up of US solar-cell manufacturing capacity, and production changes in India, Indonesia and Laos. In SMM's view, the case's medium-term significance goes beyond reducing shipments from three countries: it raises the cost of moving cells across borders and managing origin, pushing the US solar supply chain toward tighter regionalization and traceability. SMM will continue to monitor the final AD/CVD determinations, solar-cell production in the affected markets and changes in global trade flows.