Chile’s Copper Export Revenue Surged in February; Overnight LME Copper and SHFE Copper Both Closed Higher [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, 3.10, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $12,794.5/mt. After dipping to $12,734/mt early in the session, the center moved higher throughout the session, touching $12,968.5/mt near the close, and finally settling at $12,919/mt, up 0.39%. Trading volume rose to 31,000 lots, an increase of 6,518 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 303,000 lots, down 5,089 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,230 yuan/mt. After bottoming at 100,050 yuan/mt early in the session, the center moved higher throughout the session, touching 101,250 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settling at 101,160 yuan/mt, up 1.28%. Trading volume rose to 46,000 lots, down 148,000 lots from the previous trading day; open interest fell to 197,000 lots, down 3,094 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears reducing positions overall.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) Data released by Chile’s central bank on Monday showed that the country’s copper export revenue in February was $4.7 billion, up 16.3% year on year. Chile is the world’s largest copper producer. The data also showed that the country recorded a trade surplus of $2.79 billion in February this year.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On March 9, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2603 contract were quoted at discounts of 100 yuan/mt to premiums of 10 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 45 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2603 contract opened lower with a gap and then rebounded after rallying. After the open, prices quickly dipped to 98,460 yuan/mt, then fluctuated between 98,600 yuan/mt and 99,000 yuan/mt, before surging rapidly to a high of 100,370 yuan/mt and then dropping back slightly; by the close, the price was 99,830 yuan/mt. The contango price spread between futures contracts ranged from 310 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt, and the SHFE copper front-month import profit margin ranged from a loss of 350 yuan/mt to 210 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, with the delivery period approaching, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to continue narrowing steadily. Intraday, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm strengthened, and quotes in the second session were generally raised, with the transaction center moving higher. From a market-driver perspective, the continued decline in copper prices kept stimulating downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip; both buying and selling sentiment rebounded, and order activity improved, providing support for spot. Supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargo continued to arrive, social inventory remained at high levels, and overall circulation was relatively ample, placing some constraints on the room for discount recovery. Overall, spot discounts are expected to maintain a steady upward trend tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On March 9, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 170 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 99,425 yuan/mt, down 1,475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 99,265 yuan/mt, down 1,475 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp early-session drop in copper prices stimulated downstream restocking, spot premiums rose sharply, and overall trading was better than last Friday.
(3) Imported copper: On March 9, the average warrant price fell by $4/mt from the previous trading day; the average B/L price fell by $4/mt from the previous trading day; the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell by $4/mt from the previous trading day. Quotes referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late March.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on March 9, the futures closing price was 99,830 yuan/mt, down 1,250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premiums were -45 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On March 9, copper scrap prices fell 1,000 yuan/mt MoM; the copper scrap sales sentiment index fell 4.22, the purchasing index rose 2.42; the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,104 yuan/mt, down 126 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 210 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, as copper prices pulled back sharply, quotes in the copper scrap market were generally rather chaotic. Downstream enterprises bought the dip, but said transactions were average.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump claimed that the war against Iran had basically ended, easing market panic sentiment. International oil prices plunged from highs, and the US dollar index pulled back under pressure, bringing macro tailwinds to copper prices. Fundamentals: On the supply side, domestic copper and previously price-locked imported cargoes continued to arrive, leaving overall supply loose; on the demand side, the copper price pullback stimulated buying sentiment, which continued to rebound. Inventory: As of March 9, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide rose 3.37% WoW from Monday last week, and also showed a slight inventory buildup versus last Thursday. Overall, with macro tailwinds combined with recovering demand, copper prices were expected to hold up well today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a replacement for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]