Favourable macro front boosts SS futures to break through the 13,000 mark, with spot price rising and trading activity picking up [SMM Stainless Steel Spot Daily Review]

SMM May 14 News: The US CPI data released last night became the market focus. The data showed that the indicator did not rise due to the impact of tariff policies but was lower than market expectations. This result provided support for the US Fed to cut interest rates as scheduled, thereby driving the overall strength of the non-ferrous metal futures market. Among them, SS futures performed particularly well, breaking through the 13,000 yuan mark. Driven by the strong performance of the futures market, stainless steel spot market quotations also rose. Some agent traders suspended trading of 304 HRC products, further intensifying market tension. Driven by the psychology of "rushing to buy amid continuous price rise and holding back amid price downturn," the activity of low-priced sources significantly increased, and market trading heat rapidly escalated.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2507 strengthened and rose. At 10:30 AM, SS2507 was quoted at 13,050 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 270-420 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 8,050 yuan/mt; cold-rolled trimmed 304/2B coils averaged 13,225 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 13,200 yuan/mt in Foshan; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were quoted at 23,850 yuan/mt, and in Foshan at 23,850 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted at 23,050 yuan/mt in both regions; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in Wuxi and Foshan were both quoted at 7,500 yuan/mt.

Recently, multiple favorable macro factors, including the adjustment of Sino-US tariff policies and the weaker-than-expected US CPI data, have injected strong momentum into the stainless steel futures market, driving futures prices to continue climbing. The easing of tariff policies directly alleviated market concerns about export blockages, while the weaker US CPI data strengthened expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, further boosting confidence in the commodity market. However, the market still faces many constraints: on one hand, the final implementation effect and sustainability of tariff policies remain uncertain; on the other hand, stainless steel market supply continues to maintain historically high levels, and the supply-demand imbalance has not been fundamentally alleviated. Meanwhile, as raw material prices such as high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome weaken, the support from the cost side for prices has somewhat weakened. In this context, the actual recovery of downstream end-use consumption will become a key variable determining the price trend of stainless steel, requiring continuous close attention.