Spot Silicon Metal Prices Weaken and Consolidate, Polysilicon Companies Stand Firm on Quotes with Strong Market Sentiment [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

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SMM, January 16:

Silicon Metal Market:

Silicon Metal: This week, spot silicon metal prices continued to fluctuate downward. As of January 16, above-standard #553 silicon metal in east China was at 10,800-10,900 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt WoW; #441 silicon metal was at 11,100-11,300 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt WoW; #421 silicon metal was at 11,500-11,700 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded Si2503 contract fluctuated upward this week, closing at 10,685 yuan/mt on Thursday afternoon, up 300 yuan/mt from last week's lowest point. In terms of market transactions, most silicon enterprises kept their quotes stable, while some suppliers offered discounts under pressure from funding and transaction challenges. Traders maintained price suppression due to low terminal transaction prices, with limited demand for just-in-time orders, resulting in sluggish spot silicon metal transactions.

On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises' operating rates were basically stable this week, with pre-holiday orders from polysilicon companies largely fulfilled. Powder processing enterprises engaged in buying the dip but held a pessimistic outlook for post-holiday silicon powder orders. Silicone enterprises' operating rates were also basically stable this week, with price spreads for #421 silicon exceeding 600 yuan/mt among different suppliers in various regions. Currently, DMC prices are at 12,500-13,100 yuan/mt. Based on a #421 silicon price of 11,500 yuan/mt, silicone monomer enterprises are operating at a break-even point. Aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises and primary aluminum alloy enterprises maintained stable operating rates, while secondary aluminum alloy enterprises saw little change, with most secondary aluminum plants planning to begin the Chinese New Year break after January 22.

As pre-holiday road transport capacity tightens, the silicon metal market has about one week of trading left. By next weekend, the industry will gradually enter the Chinese New Year break. Downstream users have mostly completed stockpiling, and pre-holiday spot silicon metal prices are unlikely to experience significant volatility, with short-term prices expected to remain range-bound with slight fluctuations.

Polysilicon Market:

Polysilicon: This week, mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging material were 39-45 yuan/kg, while N-type dense material was at 38-42 yuan/kg. Polysilicon price ranges remained stable this week, with several new transactions recorded—downstream enterprises made multiple small-volume purchases of polysilicon. Transaction prices for rod-shaped silicon were around 42 yuan/kg, and granular silicon was around 38 yuan/kg. Currently, polysilicon enterprises are generally standing firm on quotes. However, as downstream stockpiling for the Chinese New Year concludes and raw material inventories remain high, short-term transaction willingness is weak, with polysilicon prices likely to see slight fluctuations.

Silicon Wafer: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers were priced at 1.18-1.18 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.55-1.55 yuan/piece. Late last week, silicon wafer prices rose across the board, primarily due to the fulfillment of previously low-priced orders. Additionally, some solar cell enterprises replenished specific sizes they lacked before the holiday, with transactions mostly occurring at the higher end of the quoted prices. However, silicon wafer enterprises are gradually facing transaction pressure, with trading volumes sluggish and downstream resistance to high prices evident, leading to a temporary price stalemate.

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