[SMM Weekly Review] Silver Fluctuated Upward Slightly This Week, With Stronger Trading at the Beginning of the Week

This week, influenced by risk-averse sentiment and exchange rate fluctuations, silver prices rose slightly. The ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver in the morning this week was 7,637-7,757 yuan/kg. The spot-futures price spread narrowed at the beginning of the week, with good transactions initially, followed by a decline in trading activity.
【Economic Data】:
Bullish: The US December ADP employment figure was reported at 122,000, lower than the previous value of 146,000 and the expected value of 140,000.
Bearish: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 4 were reported at 201,000, lower than the previous value of 211,000 and the expected value of 218,000.
【Spot Market】:
 Silver: In this week's silver spot market, cash spot national standard silver ingots with large volumes were quoted around parity, while large-volume cash spot silver ingots from major manufacturers were quoted at 3-4 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the week, due to the narrowing of the spot-futures price spread, market enthusiasm for selling was high. After selling, the market actively replenished spot supplies and met other procurement needs, resulting in relatively active transactions. However, as prices continued to rise, downstream enterprises reduced their restocking demand, and trading activity weakened mid-week and towards the weekend. Next week, the market is expected to enter the off-season for transactions as enterprises begin preparing for the Chinese New Year. Silver ingot manufacturers are expected to operate until around the 21st. Subsequently, the market will still provide services, but responses may slow due to telephone and logistics issues, prompting the market to actively prepare for these challenges.
Downstream: This week, the reference average price for solar cell rear-side silver paste was 5,029-5,102 yuan/kg; for solar cell busbar front-side silver paste, it was 7,565-7,674 yuan/kg; and for solar cell finger front-side silver paste, it was 7,615-7,724 yuan/kg. In the PV industry, due to uncertain holiday schedules downstream, the market could not confirm exact holiday timings, with production schedules primarily driven by industry demand. This week, jewelry industry factories began entering holiday mode as order deliveries were completed. Other industry enterprises conducted stockpiling at the beginning of the week, with some adjusting raw material reserves before New Year's Day. As the Chinese New Year approaches, market transactions have started to decline.

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