Futures Market:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,947/mt, fluctuated rangebound during the Asian session with a low of $1,934.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead maintained a fluctuating trend, surged at the close to a high of $1,975/mt, and finally settled at $1,972.5/mt, up 1.28%.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2502 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,755 yuan/mt, fluctuated downward during the session to a low of 16,720 yuan/mt. Boosted by the upward movement of LME lead, it rose at the close to a high of 16,780 yuan/mt and finally settled at 16,770 yuan/mt, up 0.24%.
》Click to View SMM Lead Spot Historical Prices
Yesterday, the SMM 1# lead average price remained unchanged from the previous day, and suppliers' quotes were mostly stable. In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at 16,800-16,900 yuan/mt, with a premium of 80-100 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2502 contract. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, JCC and Jinde lead were quoted at 16,770-16,880 yuan/mt, with a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2502 contract. Secondary lead smelters stood firm on quotes, continuing to offer ex-factory prices with a premium of 50-100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream enterprises remained cautious and purchased as needed, with spot order market transactions being moderate.
Inventory: On January 7, LME lead inventory decreased by 200 mt to 234,700 mt, down 0.09%. As of January 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions stood at 48,200 mt, down 4,900 mt from December 30 and down 4,600 mt from January 2.
》Click to View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database
Lead Price Forecast Today:
Macro Side, the PBOC increased its gold holdings for the second consecutive month, while foreign exchange reserves in December fell by 1.94% MoM. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the US to immediately lift illegal unilateral sanctions on Chinese enterprises.
Entering January 2025, although the supply of primary and secondary refined lead continues to decline, downstream enterprises remain cautious in the face of weak lead prices, with low purchase willingness. After the New Year holiday, restocking enthusiasm has been subdued. Attention should be paid to whether pre-Chinese New Year restocking by dealers will stimulate raw material demand from downstream battery enterprises and whether lead prices will rebound.
