SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting: Supply Pressure Eases Slightly, but Weak Demand Risks Inventory Buildup, Prices Fluctuate

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Supply Pressure Eases on Fundamentals Side, but Demand Remains Weak; Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Slightly]

Macro front, the Chinese government continues efforts to boost consumption, while regional conflicts remain unresolved. Fundamentals side, although multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi reduced production in December, and some capacity restarts were delayed, production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, under the off-season, market demand continued to weaken, with operating rates in the aluminum processing industry declining steadily, and some aluminum processing plants nearing holiday shutdowns. Overall, on the fundamentals side, supply pressure has slightly eased, but weak demand during the off-season has led to growing risks of inventory buildup. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward. In the long term, attention should be paid to the US Fed's future stance on interest rate cuts and changes in the pace of consumption recovery.