SMM Aluminum Futures: Prices Fluctuate Downwards Amid Uncertain Monetary Policy and Weak Demand

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: SHFE Aluminum Jumped Initially and Then Pulled Back, Alumina Fluctuated Upward]

Macro front, the European Central Bank may slow its pace of interest rate cuts, coupled with the market's pessimism about the extent of next year's US Fed interest rate cuts, non-ferrous metals remained under pressure. Fundamentals side, multiple aluminum smelters in Sichuan and Guangxi implemented production cuts in December, with some capacity resumption progress stalled, yet production still showed positive YoY growth. Demand side, under the off-season for consumption, market demand continued to weaken, and the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry declined steadily. Overall, with the US Fed's interest rate cut pace unclear and the European Central Bank delaying its cuts, the fundamentals side saw slight relief in supply-side pressure, but weak demand during the off-season and growing risks of inventory buildup in social stocks persisted. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate downward.