Some Enterprises Restock Before the Holiday, Pr-Nd Oxide Stabilizes—What Will Be the Performance of the Rare Earth Market in the Future? [SMM Commentary]

SMM, December 23:

According to SMM, influenced by some enterprises conducting slight pre-holiday restocking to maintain production during the Chinese New Year, the spot prices of rare earth carbonate, rare earth chloride, Pr-Nd oxide, and cerium oxide rose slightly on December 23.

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The demand increase brought by pre-holiday restocking by some enterprises led to a slight rebound in the average price of Pr-Nd oxide and others. On December 23, Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 395,000-397,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 396,000 yuan/mt, up 3,500 yuan/mt or 0.89% from the previous trading day. Since December, the overall price center of rare earths has been trending downward. The average price of 396,000 yuan/mt on the 23rd marked a decline of 17,500 yuan/mt or 4.23% within less than a month compared to 413,500 yuan/mt on November 29.

Regarding the outlook for rare earths, considering that the scale and intensity of pre-holiday restocking this year are lower than in previous years and that some enterprises have already closed their year-end accounts, the increase in restocking demand is expected to be limited. Moreover, with Myanmar fruits already transported to China, it is anticipated that Myanmar ore imports will also enter the domestic market by month-end or early next month, thereby increasing supply. Coupled with some traders seeking to sell goods to recover funds before the New Year, these factors are expected to limit the duration and extent of rare earth price rebounds.