Overnight Aluminum Prices Fluctuate Rangebound, Focus on Macro and Cost Changes [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Dec 11]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2501 contract opened at 20,300 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,375 yuan/mt, a low of 20,290 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,365 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous day, an increase of 0.35%. On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,590.5/mt, reached a high of $2,619.5/mt, a low of $2,570/mt, and closed at $2,615/mt, up $18.5/mt, an increase of 0.71%.

Summary: On the macro front, the previously expected easing of the hot war situation has once again become volatile. On the fundamentals side, high aluminum costs are raising concerns about production cuts. On the demand side, it is currently the off-season for consumption, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is declining, but the social inventory of aluminum ingots remains at a relatively low level of below 600,000 mt. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Changes in the macro situation and the direction of aluminum costs remain the biggest variables at present.