Overnight Lead Prices Slightly Rebounded, Strong Bottom Support for Lead Prices [SMM Lead Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,992.5/mt, consolidated during the Asian session, dipped to $1,975.5/mt in the European session, then rose to a high of $2,013.5/mt before slightly dropping back, and finally closed at $2,004.5/mt, up $6/mt, an increase of 0.3%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2412 contract opened at 16,785 yuan/mt, initially rose to a high of 16,880 yuan/mt, then slightly weakened, dipped below the daily moving average to 16,770 yuan/mt, and finally slightly rebounded to close at 16,810 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.18%.

Macro side, the US dollar index fell back from highs this week. Base metals generally rebounded, with LME lead ending its consecutive decline and moving upward.

Fundamentally, primary lead smelters maintained stable production in November. However, smog warnings reappeared in regions like Henan and Anhui, but smelters have not yet announced any production changes. Environmental protection measures in autumn and winter continue to disrupt refined lead supply. Before the start of new long-term contracts, market circulation remains tight. Primary lead smelters mainly shipped with premiums, while secondary refined lead producers stood firm on quotes with discounts of 0-50 yuan/mt or slight premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against SMM 1# lead. Downstream battery enterprises showed slight differences in consumption, but maintained high operating rates in late November. The actual impact on supply needs further attention. Lead prices have strong bottom support and are expected to fluctuate upward this week.