Transportation Improvement Signals Turning Point in Aluminum Ingot Inventory, Weakening Support to Aluminum Price [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Nov 18]

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2501 contract opened at 20,350 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,505 yuan/mt, a low of 20,525 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,480 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.17% from the previous close. On Monday, LME aluminum opened at $2,651.5/mt, hit a high of $2,689/mt, a low of $2,576/mt, and closed at $2,610.5/mt, down $46/mt or 1.73%.

Summary: On the macro front, recent speeches by Fed officials, including Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, suggest that the US Fed will be cautious on the path to interest rate cuts, and the market expects the pace of rate cuts to slow down. On the fundamentals side, the domestic aluminum supply remains stable; on the demand side, there are signs of continued improvement in shipments from Xinjiang, and concentrated arrivals are expected in Gongyi and Wuxi regions in the short term. The inventory turning point may appear as early as next week. Additionally, attention should be paid to the "rush to export" by downstream sectors before the official implementation of the cancellation of export tax rebates on aluminum semis and whether the aluminum price correction continues to drive spot cargo outflows from warehouses. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a state of low inventory and high costs, but the support for aluminum prices is gradually weakening. The short-term tax rebate policy has triggered market panic sentiment, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the coming days.