US Consumer Confidence Index Rises, Aluminum Prices Adjust at Highs [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Nov 11]

Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 21,490 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 21,630 yuan/mt and a low of 21,440 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,530 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from the previous close, a decrease of 0.65%. The trading volume was 81,900 lots, and the open interest was 215,000 lots, with a daily reduction of 4,900 lots. On Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,694.5/mt, hit a high of $2,711.5/mt, a low of $2,616/mt, and closed at $2,627/mt, down $67.5/mt, a decrease of 2.51%.

Summary: On the macro front, the US Fed's interest rate cut in November was as expected, but the statement on achieving inflation targets was removed, suggesting a possible pause in interest rate cuts in December. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, putting pressure on non-ferrous metals. On the fundamentals side, the recent rise in aluminum costs was significant, with some companies planning to halt production for maintenance, but the impact on production was limited, and the supply and demand relationship remained relatively stable. Social inventory was affected by transportation issues, continuously destocking to below the 600,000 mt mark. Spot alumina supply was tight, and some companies' production cuts and halts caused disruptions, leading to alumina prices fluctuating upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward.