October Aluminum Production Increases, Proportion of Aluminum Liquid Continues to Rise [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2412 contract opened at 21,045 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 21,200 yuan/mt and a low of 21,080 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,100 yuan/mt, up 270 yuan/mt or 1.30% from the previous close. The trading volume was 51,000 lots, and the open interest was 206,000 lots, with a daily increase of 1,968 lots. On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,620/mt, hit a high of $2,663/mt, a low of $2,612/mt, and closed at $2,659/mt, up $38/mt or 1.45%.

Summary: On the macro front, global liquidity remains ample, the Chinese government continues to boost consumption, and the escalating hot war situation supports gold and commodity prices. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply and demand both saw slight YoY growth, with the supply and demand relationship relatively stable. Social inventory was affected by transportation issues, continuously destocking to below the 600,000 mt mark. Spot alumina supply is tight, and some companies' production cuts and suspensions have caused alumina prices to fluctuate upward, providing strong support for aluminum prices on the cost side. Overall, domestic aluminum remains in a low inventory and high-cost state, and short-term aluminum prices may fluctuate upward.