SMM Analysis On China September Ternary Cathode Materials Production And October Forecast

In September 2024, China's ternary cathode materials production decreased by 7% MoM and was up 3% YoY. The overall operating rate in September was 40%, lower than in August. Overseas ternary cathode materials production decreased by 10% MoM from August. In terms of series proportion, in September, the 5-series accounted for 24%, the 6-series for 32%, and the 8-series for 37%. Compared to the previous month, the 6-series maintained a significant increase, while the 8-series high-nickel proportion showed a noticeable decline. Market structure-wise, Ronbay, Reshine, and Brunp occupied the top three in industry production, with CR3 at 48%, CR5 at 60%, and CR10 at 80%, indicating a further increase in market concentration compared to August. Demand side, the current demand for ternary cathode materials remains low. On one hand, overseas NEV sales continue to decline, and on the other, the domestic market is increasingly occupied by LFP. In September, ternary battery cell production increased by 2% MoM, but the increase was lower-than-expected. The stocking pace of small power and digital 3C manufacturers has slowed, reducing demand for ternary cathode materials. In October, ternary cathode materials production is expected to continue its downward trend, with an anticipated decrease of 4%.