Positive resonance at home and abroad drives aluminum prices up, but caution is needed regarding post-holiday inventory accumulation risks [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,010 yuan/mt, reached a high of 20,125 yuan/mt and a low of 20,010 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,050 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.02%. On the previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,557/mt, hit a high of $2,580/mt and a low of $2,516/mt, and closed at $2,539/mt, down $17/mt, a decrease of 0.67%.

Summary: Macro front, due to the domestic monetary policy exceeding expectations, positive resonance formed at home and abroad, significantly boosting market confidence and driving up non-ferrous metals. Additionally, US Fed officials are divided on the November rate cut expectations, awaiting employment and inflation data to be released on Thursday and Friday. Fundamentals side, recently, aluminum plants in Sichuan plan to start production, slightly increasing domestic aluminum supply, while alumina prices fluctuate upward, providing cost support to domestic aluminum prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream just-in-time replenishment is concentrated, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory showing good destocking performance and downstream operations gradually recovering. However, caution is needed regarding post-holiday inventory accumulation risks. Overall, both domestic and international macro conditions are favorable, with stable to improving downstream operations during the domestic consumption peak season. With pre-holiday market demand for concentrated replenishment, domestic aluminum inventory is expected to continue declining, and the aluminum market is anticipated to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the short term.