Central banks implement loose monetary policies, boosting non-ferrous metals. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to macro influences [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 25: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,065 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,170 yuan/mt and a low of 20,035 yuan/mt, closing at 20,105 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt, an increase of 1%. LME aluminum opened the previous trading day at $2,489/mt, with a high of $2,568/mt and a low of $2,483/mt, closing at $2,554/mt, up $68/mt, an increase of 2.73%.
Summary: On the macro front, following the US Fed's 50bp rate cut, the domestic central bank introduced policies as well, entering a monetary easing cycle both domestically and internationally, driving up non-ferrous metal prices. On the fundamentals side, the domestic aluminum market supply side slightly increased, while alumina price showed upward fluctuations due to tight supply. The domestic aluminum cost side remained at a high level. Under the influence of the "September-October peak season," downstream weekly operating rates for aluminum remained stable, with downstream consumption steadily improving. However, caution is needed regarding the negative impact of overseas market tariff hike policies on domestic aluminum processing enterprises. Overall, with favorable macro conditions both domestically and internationally, stable downstream operations during the domestic peak consumption season, and pre-holiday market restocking demand, domestic aluminum inventory is expected to continue declining. In the short term, the aluminum market is expected to maintain an upward fluctuation trend.